Bitcoin Down 46% From Peak—Why Wall Street Is Confident in a $150,000 Rally

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) © CoinReaders

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has plunged 46% from its all-time high and fallen into a deep slump. Nevertheless, a top Wall Street investment firm has issued a bold forecast that the asset could surge 120% within the year to reach $150,000, drawing intense attention from investors.

According to investment publication The Motley Fool on Feb. 22 (local time), while most analysts are lowering their 2026 price targets for Bitcoin, investment bank Bernstein maintains that a breakout above $150,000 by year-end is achievable. The key factors behind a potential renewed rally from the current level of around $68,200 include strong institutional demand and solid fundamentals.

Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle of three years of expansion followed by one year of contraction, experiencing price collapses exceeding 50% in 2014, 2018, and 2022. However, Bernstein characterized the projected 2026 downturn as the weakest bear case in history, noting the absence of bankruptcies, liquidity crises, or catastrophic corporate failures. The firm explained that what is weighing on the market is merely a crisis of confidence.

Indeed, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen below 10, signaling extreme fear. However, if the index recovers above 20, prices could surge again. Major asset managers continue to add Bitcoin to their portfolios, net inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have resumed, and corporate treasury purchases are ongoing, reinforcing the core investment thesis.

Over the past 12 months, Bitcoin has admittedly lost some of its appeal as “digital gold.” Since last October, the price of physical gold, represented by the iShares Gold Trust (IAU), has soared, while Bitcoin has declined sharply, demonstrating a clear divergence. Bernstein also acknowledged that Bitcoin is currently trading like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset.

However, the publication argued that this very characteristic as a risk asset provides Bitcoin with truly explosive upside potential. Market sentiment is expected to reach an inflection point by midyear, and if Bitcoin maintains stable performance over the coming months, it could more than double in value by year-end and feasibly achieve the $150,000 target.

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