Bitcoin Plunges Nearly 50% Since Start of Year, Experts Say 88% Chance of Year-End Rally

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Cryptocurrency/ChatGPT-generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen sharply since the start of the year. However, an analysis of historical statistical data suggests an optimistic outlook, indicating an 88% probability that prices will rise by December this year.

On February 21 local time, economist Timothy Peterson stated on his X (formerly Twitter) account that an analysis of Bitcoin’s historical return data shows a very high likelihood that the price will be higher than its current level within the next 10 months. Peterson cited that Bitcoin closed higher in 12 out of the past 24 months, representing half of the period. He explained that the fact 50% of the past 24 months were positive implies an 88% probability that Bitcoin’s price will be higher 10 months from now.

According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin recorded gains in six months of 2025 while closing lower in the remaining six months, reflecting a balanced trend throughout the year. The current Bitcoin price is trading around $68,173, approximately 25% lower than the level recorded at the beginning of the year. Peterson utilizes the proportion of positive months over a 24-month period, rather than monthly fluctuations, as a key indicator of potential trend reversals.

Market experts remain sharply divided in their outlooks. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Strategies, recently predicted the emergence of a massive bullish candle that would break a five-month consecutive decline, forecasting a market rebound next week. In contrast, veteran trader Peter Brandt warned in an interview with Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s true bottom may not be confirmed until October 2026, cautioning about the possibility of further declines.

Investor sentiment has entered a phase of extreme fear, with the Fear and Greed Index falling to 9, its lowest level since June 2022, reflecting a subdued market atmosphere. On prediction platform Polymarket, the probabilities of November and December being Bitcoin’s best-performing months this year stand at 18% and 17%, respectively. Santiment analyzed that the recent decline in social media mentions of Bitcoin price predictions may actually signal a healthy cooling of overheated sentiment and a return to neutrality.

As statistical optimism and technical caution intersect, the Bitcoin market is entering a new price formation phase heading toward year-end. Changes in the macroeconomic environment and the recovery of investor sentiment are expected to determine whether the statistical probability suggested by Peterson will materialize.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and the publisher is not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.