Bitcoin On-Chain Indicators Warn of Drop to $45,000, “Buying Now Could Leave You Trapped”

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) / ChatGPT-generated image

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to alternate between recovery and stagnation amid macroeconomic uncertainty, a historically reliable on-chain indicator has pointed to $45,000 as Bitcoin’s bottom price, warning of the possibility of further downside.

According to cryptocurrency-focused outlet NewsBTC on Feb. 16 (local time), market analyst Ali Martinez stated that the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), a key metric used to identify Bitcoin’s long-term bottom, is currently indicating $45,225. Martinez noted that CVDD has been one of the most respected indicators, accurately capturing cycle lows since 2012, and assessed that the current Bitcoin market is in a transitional phase after a euphoric expansion period and before potentially entering a capitulation stage.

CVDD is a valuation model that analyzes the movement patterns of long-term holders to identify structural market bottoms. Calculated by adjusting the cumulative historical value of Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)—which represents the number of days coins remain unmoved since being minted—the indicator quantifies the behavioral principle in which long-term holders distribute at market tops and accumulate at bottoms. Historically, Bitcoin has approached or briefly fallen below the CVDD line during major bearish cycles, including the 2015 bear market, the 2018 capitulation, and the 2022 crash, before staging strong long-term recoveries.

The current CVDD level at $45,225 represents what is considered a “Deep Value” zone within the present market structure. While this does not necessarily mean Bitcoin must decline to that level, it is regarded as a structural defensive line that could serve as a strong support if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. Stable trading above the CVDD suggests that the market remains in a healthy macro position, whereas price convergence toward the indicator tends to coincide with extreme pessimism and strengthened long-term accumulation.

Bitcoin is currently moving sideways in a range around $70,000 as it searches for direction. Analysts say that maintaining sufficient distance from the symbolic support level of $45,225 will be critical to sustaining the next upward cycle. A sharp decline toward that level would signal mounting corrective pressure, while continued strength above it would serve as evidence that the current market cycle remains structurally sound.

The digital asset market is currently engaged in a tug-of-war between the conviction of long-term holders and the inflow of short-term speculative capital. On-chain data leaves open the possibility of further downside for Bitcoin, while also reminding investors of the strong safety net proven through past cycles. Rather than focusing on short-term price fluctuations, investors are closely watching how Bitcoin manages its gap with CVDD, a historical bottom indicator, to gauge fundamental shifts in the market’s underlying strength.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.