Bitcoin vs. Gold: Hidden Signal of an Explosive Rally as Returns Hit Historic Lows

▲ Gold, Bitcoin (BTC)

An analysis suggests that the widening return gap between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold has reached historic lows, signaling that the time may be near for digital assets to outperform gold in an explosive rally.

As of February 2026, gold prices have surpassed $5,100, setting new all-time highs. In contrast, Bitcoin has sharply declined, struggling to hold above $65,000. Amid intensifying competition between the two leading scarce assets, market expert Michael van de Poppe emphasized that the relative strength index between Bitcoin and gold has reached its lowest level in history. He noted that the current Bitcoin-to-gold ratio structure closely resembles the bottoming patterns seen just before previous major bull markets.

Van de Poppe explained that Bitcoin has been in a downtrend against gold for approximately 14 months and that this bearish cycle is nearing its end. In past periods when Bitcoin underperformed gold—such as 2013–2015 and 2017–2019—it was followed by several years of strong upward trends. “The weekly relative strength index hitting a record low indicates that Bitcoin is at the tail end of a long-term downtrend,” he said, suggesting that Bitcoin may be preparing to regain independent upward momentum.

Shifts in market sentiment are also evident in the options trading volume of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT. Recently, IBIT options trading volume surpassed that of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF and SPDR Gold Shares, rising to ninth place in the U.S. market. JPMorgan analysts similarly evaluated Bitcoin as a far more attractive investment than gold from a long-term perspective, signaling a potential large-scale shift of institutional capital. According to data from prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 stands at 29%, though experts believe Bitcoin’s volatility could explode to the upside.

Crypto analyst Willy Woo observed that the 12-year correlation trend between Bitcoin and gold has recently begun to change. Woo projected that over the next decade, as debt crisis cycles unfold, investors may increasingly favor tangible assets like gold. However, if Bitcoin’s scarcity becomes more prominent, it could deliver overwhelmingly superior returns. While gold continues to show solid gains supported by macroeconomic trends and technical strength, a reversal in the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio could result in Bitcoin significantly outperforming gold in terms of price appreciation.

The Bitcoin market stands at a historic inflection point amid shifting dynamics among major assets. While gold solidifies its status as a safe-haven asset, Bitcoin appears to be concluding its corrective phase and preparing for a new stage of price discovery. Rather than being swayed by short-term sideways movements, investors are closely monitoring changes in relative strength between the two assets and the flow of institutional capital to formulate response strategies. Global financial markets are watching closely to see whether Bitcoin can regain the upper hand over gold and reaffirm its value as digital gold.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and the publisher is not responsible for any investment losses resulting from its use. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.