Cardano at Risk of Breaking Below $0.25, Could Open Path to $0.22

▲ Cardano (ADA)/ChatGPT-generated image

Macroeconomic uncertainty triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s review of tariff policies and conflict with the Supreme Court has swept over the cryptocurrency market, pushing Cardano (ADA) to the brink as it threatens key support levels.

According to an FXStreet analyst on February 23 (local time), Cardano’s price plunged 4% during Monday’s trading session, breaking below its short-term upward trendline. The decline follows the Trump administration’s reassessment of global tariff policies and domestic political turmoil, which have sharply dampened investor appetite for risk assets. Amid simultaneous declines in major assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the analyst noted that downward pressure on ADA has been particularly intense.

Derivatives market indicators also clearly reflect investor fear. As open interest declines, funding rates have fallen below 0.010%, suggesting that sellers have fully taken control of the market. This indicates that market participants are building significant short positions in anticipation of further declines, reflecting deeply pessimistic sentiment that makes a short-term rebound unlikely.

Technical analysis shows ADA standing at a critical crossroads at $0.2500. The breakdown of the Fibonacci 50% retracement level at $0.2593—drawn between the February 3 high of $0.3050 and the February 6 low of $0.2289—has accelerated the downward trend. Analysts warn that if the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level at $0.2496 fails to hold, the price could plunge vertically toward the February 6 low of $0.2205.

ADA’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached the oversold threshold of 30, signaling extreme selling pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also falling steeply below the zero line, reinforcing bearish momentum. Experts offer a grim assessment: “In the face of the massive headwind of a tariff storm, technical indicators are collapsing, and $0.2500 has now become the last line of defense determining Cardano’s survival.”

For Cardano to stage a reversal, it must securely break above the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at $0.2695. However, unless uncertainties surrounding tariff policies are resolved, overcoming resistance from moving averages positioned at $0.2773 and $0.3013 appears challenging. Investors are maintaining a cautious stance, preparing for further downside and closely watching whether key support levels will collapse.

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