Altcoins, 2017 Deja Vu... Will Dual Tailwinds of Oversold Conditions and Institutional Adoption Prevail?

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The digital asset market has prepared to transition into a powerful altcoin-led rebound, supported by historically oversold indicators and the major positive development of spot ETF approvals within the institutional financial system.

In a video published on his YouTube channel on February 26 (local time), cryptocurrency analyst Dan Gambardello analyzed that major altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and XRP, are in the process of forming a bottom near the end of the bearish cycle. Gambardello emphasized that “the volatility currently observed in the market is a typical characteristic of a bottoming phase,” urging investors to remain patient. He highlighted the official Nasdaq listing of the SUI spot ETF as a key shift, signaling the beginning of substantial institutional capital inflows.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of the SUI spot ETF listing marks a symbolic milestone showing that the altcoin ecosystem is being integrated into mainstream finance. Gambardello explained that the reality of a relatively new project like SUI trading as an ETF on Nasdaq—something nearly unimaginable just a year ago—demonstrates the market’s maturation. As institutions accelerate position building, SUI has attracted attention by establishing its own upward momentum despite the broader market downturn.

Technical indicators strongly support the possibility of a major altcoin rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) across Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader altcoin market has reached its second-lowest level in history, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has formed golden crosses above the signal line across multiple cycles. The total altcoin market capitalization chart, excluding Bitcoin, also reflects extreme oversold conditions, concentrating momentum energy similar to periods just before previous bull runs.

Macroeconomic indicators and their growing correlation with the digital asset market are also sending positive signals. The structure of the Russell 2000 index, which focuses on small- and mid-cap stocks, is replicating patterns seen just before the 2017 crypto bull market. This could serve as a powerful catalyst for an upcoming altcoin season as the economy enters an expansionary phase. If the Federal Reserve eases its quantitative tightening stance and liquidity recovers, a foundation will be laid for altcoin prices—suppressed for years—to rise exponentially.

The digital asset market has now entered a strategic accumulation zone based on low risk scores. In Gambardello’s proprietary risk model, Cardano scored 13 and SUI 16, hovering near historical lows. Historical data suggests a high probability of price appreciation over the next year, underscoring the need for investors to manage portfolio risk while preparing for the next bull cycle. Establishing a clear exit strategy before prices accelerate parabolically will be key to maximizing returns.

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