Bitcoin: Institutions Show Confidence While Retail Interest Turns Cold, "Four-Year Cycle Still Intact"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

In 2026, the Bitcoin (BTC) market is entering a new pricing cycle distinct from the past, as polarization deepens between strong institutional confidence and retail investor indifference.

According to Cointelegraph on February 26 (local time), Nic Puckrin, CEO of crypto-focused YouTube channel Coin Bureau, described this year’s market in a recent interview as two sharply divided arenas: one defined by institutional conviction and the other by retail apathy. Puckrin noted that despite news of large capital inflows through exchange-traded funds and policy changes, individual investors are not participating in the market as actively as they did in previous cycles.

Regarding Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory, he stated that it remains valid. Although some argued that the traditional formula had broken down due to the unusual price surge before the halving and the absence of a typical peak pattern, recent price movements have prompted even skeptics to reconsider the durability of the cycle. Puckrin analyzed that these cyclical characteristics are a key element supporting the market’s technical structure.

The security threat posed by quantum computing is emerging as a variable that must be included in practical risk management frameworks rather than remaining a fringe topic. Puckrin said that serious discussions have begun among investors about the potential impact of advances in quantum computing technology on cryptocurrency encryption systems. However, opinions within the community are still divided on the urgency of this threat.

He projected that a full-scale market recovery is likely in the second half of this year. Puckrin assessed that it will take more time for the current subdued liquidity environment to improve and for institutional buying pressure to translate into meaningful price gains. According to his analysis, Bitcoin could enter a significant rebound phase when specific conditions linked to the broader economic environment outside the crypto market are met.

In conclusion, 2026 is expected to mark the completion of a market restructuring led by institutions, with the return of retail investors determining the scale of the next rally. Puckrin emphasized that Bitcoin’s new direction will be decided at the intersection of technical cycles and macroeconomic liquidity. The market’s ability to absorb volatility on a solid foundation of institutional support will be the key indicator determining the success or failure of the crypto market this year.

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