Bitcoin Following Midterm Election Year Pattern… Benjamin Cowen Says March Will See Only a Temporary Bounce

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) is signaling a short-term rally in early March, following technical patterns historically observed during midterm election years. However, there is a warning that this March rally is more likely to be a temporary rebound rather than the beginning of a new bull market.

Veteran trader Benjamin Cowen analyzed Bitcoin’s historical return data in a video released on his YouTube channel on February 26 (local time), noting that the current market is closely tracking historical averages. Cowen explained that in past midterm election years such as 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin repeatedly formed a bottom in late February before reaching a peak in early March. Historically, early March has served as a critical inflection point for price reversals following late-February lows.

As of 2026, Bitcoin is moving within the standard deviation range of previous midterm election years and is projected to maintain short-term upward momentum into early March. Cowen pointed out that while this rebound could lure investors back into the market, prices have historically faced renewed downward pressure after early March. He added that although market participants often search for news-driven explanations for price increases, Bitcoin frequently follows predetermined technical paths.

The target for this rebound is estimated to be around $74,000. The $74,000 level previously acted as strong support in April 2025 but has since turned into a difficult resistance zone to break. Cowen analyzed that even if Bitcoin reaches $74,000—approximately 15% below its opening price of $87,000 at the start of the year—it is likely to represent the upper limit of a technical rebound rather than a structural trend reversal.

Historical data shows that after forming a local peak in early March, Bitcoin has tended to decline gradually through April and May. Cowen advised investors to remember that midterm election years are typically characterized by stepwise declines and the formation of lower highs. He emphasized that misinterpreting the current rally as the start of a push toward new all-time highs and engaging in aggressive chase buying would be highly risky.

While Bitcoin may experience temporary strength in early March, the longer-term downward trend remains intact. Rather than reacting emotionally to short-term price fluctuations, investors should focus on risk management from a conservative standpoint, taking historical statistical patterns into account. Whether the market can sustain momentum beyond this early-March inflection point is expected to be a decisive indicator for the direction of the first half of the year.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only and assumes no responsibility for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*