U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Deadline Looms… Bitcoin Investors on High Alert

▲ United States, Iran, Bitcoin (BTC) / AI-generated image

As nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran stand at a crossroads between collapse and agreement ahead of the deadline proposed by Trump, the global cryptocurrency market is holding its breath amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

According to crypto-focused outlet CoinGape on February 26 (local time), the United States and Iran will resume their third round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday, just days before the administration’s deadline expires. Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi is expected to deliver Iran’s proposal during the talks. Although both sides previously agreed to draft a preliminary agreement, market anxiety remains unresolved.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized, “We will engage in dialogue with the United States with the determination to achieve a fair and equitable deal in the shortest possible time.” In contrast, U.S. President Donald Trump has maintained a hardline stance, insisting that he will never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons. While denying any intention to possess nuclear arms, the Iranian government has prioritized lifting sanctions that have crippled its economy.

Trump has set a negotiation deadline for Iran between March 1 and 6, warning of potential military strikes in the event of noncompliance. The possibility of a new war in the Middle East poses a significant threat to the cryptocurrency market. Earlier this year, when the United States dispatched warships near Iran, Bitcoin (BTC) prices plunged sharply, heightening investor fears.

Market pessimism is also reflected in the data. On prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of reaching a deal within March has dropped to around 30%. China is closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and has expressed support for efforts to maintain stability within the Iranian government. With billions of dollars in asset value already erased from last year’s highs, the cryptocurrency market is acutely sensitive to the outcome of the talks.

As geopolitical risks intensify, the direction of major assets such as Bitcoin remains uncertain. If tensions between the United States and Iran escalate further, disruptions to supply chains and contractions in financial markets would be unavoidable, accelerating capital outflows across the broader digital asset ecosystem. The outcome of the negotiations could serve as a decisive variable, triggering not only political repercussions but also a seismic shift in the digital asset market.

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