Bitcoin Retreats as Nasdaq Jumps 1%—What’s Behind the Stark Divergence in Investor Sentiment?

▲ U.S. stock market and Bitcoin/ChatGPT-generated image

U.S. stock markets in New York rebounded across the board on news of cooperation among artificial intelligence (AI) companies, but the cryptocurrency market remains stuck in extreme fear and unable to escape weakness. As positive factors lifting equities have failed to translate into improved investor sentiment in digital assets, a clear decoupling trend has emerged.

On the 24th (U.S. Eastern Time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,174.50, up 0.76% from the previous session. The S&P 500 rose 0.77% to 6,890.07, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.04% to 22,863.68. Anthropic, which had been at the center of claims that AI could disrupt the software industry, announced app integration partnerships with major companies including Salesforce and Adobe. As a result, panic selling centered on tech stocks eased and a rebound rally based on expectations of coexistence unfolded. Adding to the momentum, news that Meta had made large-scale purchases of AMD AI chips pushed the semiconductor index up 1.45%, spreading warmth across the broader tech sector.

In contrast, the cryptocurrency market remains deeply frozen. As of 6:57 a.m. Korea time on the 25th, CoinMarketCap data showed that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell 0.41% over the past 24 hours to $2.22 trillion. Bitcoin, the market leader, slipped 0.81% to $64,067.91, barely holding above the $64,000 level. Ethereum declined 0.53% to $1,854.09, XRP fell 0.65% to $1.35, and Dogecoin dropped 1.66% to $0.09181, with all major altcoins struggling. The Fear and Greed Index, which reflects overall market sentiment, stood at 11, remaining in a state of “Extreme Fear.”

The biggest reason the cryptocurrency market has been thoroughly sidelined despite the rebound in New York equities is that the stock market’s tailwinds were limited to AI and specific tech sectors. Fundamental macroeconomic burdens weighing on digital assets continue to drain market liquidity. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the federal funds futures market is pricing in a 98% probability that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged through March. Deep concerns about prolonged high interest rates are suppressing appetite for risk assets.

The outlook remains uncertain. With decoupling from equities becoming more pronounced, the cryptocurrency market will likely require a tangible shift in macroeconomic conditions, such as an interest rate cut, or a strong internal bullish catalyst to escape extreme fear. If the current environment—where expectations for rate cuts have significantly retreated—persists, major digital assets including Bitcoin are likely to face continued downward pressure amid liquidity constraints for the time being.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.