25% Chance of Bitcoin Falling Below $50,000—Will It Become Reality?

▲ Bitcoin market plunges sharply ©

As Bitcoin (BTC) lost the $65,000 support level, debate has reignited over the possibility of a breakdown below $50,000, with generative AI ChatGPT estimating the probability at 25%.

According to cryptocurrency-focused outlet Finbold on February 24 (local time), ChatGPT estimated a 25% chance that Bitcoin, currently trading around $63,000, could fall below the $50,000 mark. While acknowledging meaningful downside risk, it did not consider a drop to $50,000 as the most likely scenario at this stage.

A detailed probability distribution was also provided. The likelihood of falling below $60,000 was estimated at 60%, while the probability of dropping under $55,000 was put at 45%. Meanwhile, the chance of holding above $60,000 in the short term was assessed at 40%. The analysis noted that a move down to $50,000 would likely require additional negative catalysts, such as a loss of confidence across the broader digital asset market or a global macroeconomic shock.

ChatGPT highlighted the $55,000–$60,000 support zone as particularly critical. A clear breakdown of this range could accelerate selling pressure as traders react to technical bearish signals. Recent price weakness around the $60,000 level has somewhat increased downside risks.

Market outlooks remain divided. Some blockchain analysts warn that macroeconomic uncertainty combined with weakened investor sentiment could lead to a retest of the cycle low. In contrast, investment firm Bernstein argues that bearish views are excessive and maintains that Bitcoin has long-term upside potential toward $150,000. Standard Chartered revised its previous $150,000 target down to $100,000 but continues to hold a constructive outlook.

As of the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $64,026, down about 1% over the past 24 hours and more than 5% over the past week. The immediate challenge is defending the $60,000 level. A breakdown could open the door to a move into the $50,000 range, while a successful hold may ease concerns of a sharper decline.

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