Crypto Market Structure Bill Passage Odds Drop to 53%, Threatening XRP Support Breakdown

▲ XRP (XRP) / AI-generated image

The likelihood of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill passing has sharply fallen to 53%, heightening policy uncertainty. At the same time, the future price direction of XRP has become increasingly unclear.

According to crypto-focused media outlet CoinGape on February 24 (local time), the probability of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill passing Congress recently dropped to 53% in prediction markets, down from previously higher levels. This decline has disappointed investors who had anticipated greater regulatory clarity for digital assets, and it is exerting immediate downward pressure on the XRP market, which is still dealing with the aftermath of the legal dispute between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Market analysts say the fate of the bill is a key factor that will determine XRP’s mid- to long-term price trajectory. If regulatory uncertainty persists, XRP may struggle to defend major support levels, and further capital outflows driven by weakened investor sentiment cannot be ruled out. Conversely, if the bill passes dramatically and regulatory guidelines become clear, XRP could shed its regulatory risks entirely and gain strong rebound momentum.

The U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill includes requirements for stablecoin issuance and guidelines for exchange operations, raising expectations that it would accelerate the integration of digital assets into the institutional framework in the United States. However, recent political clashes and disagreements over specific provisions have slashed the bill’s passage probability by nearly half, fueling market anxiety. XRP investors, in particular, are taking a cautious stance, concerned that failure of the bill could intensify pressure from regulatory authorities.

Technical indicators also show XRP in a precarious position, with trading volume declining below major moving averages. Experts agree that without policy support, it is difficult to be optimistic about a price recovery based solely on chart analysis. The drop in the bill’s passage probability to the low-50% range suggests that the market has begun pricing in the possibility of its failure, a factor that is amplifying short-term price volatility.

The long-term growth of the XRP ecosystem ultimately depends on establishing clear legal status and attracting institutional capital inflows. The direction of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill goes beyond simple legislation and represents a critical issue that will shape the leadership of the U.S. digital asset market. As the final vote scheduled for April approaches, investors are closely monitoring every political development and statement from regulators while thoroughly managing risk during this pivotal period.

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