With US-Iran Tensions at Peak, Bitcoin Shows Deja Vu of Signals Before 30% Surge

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Market tensions have reached a peak amid claims of an imminent U.S. attack on Iran. However, past cases and on-chain data suggest that Bitcoin could seize geopolitical crises as opportunities to stage a strong rally.

In a video released on Feb. 23 (local time), cryptocurrency-focused YouTube channel Altcoin Daily cited a tip from former CIA officer John Kiriakou, warning that the United States could launch military action against Iran within hours. Kiriakou predicted that although President Donald Trump publicly proposed a 10-day diplomatic negotiation window, he may employ a tactic of catching the opponent off guard by initiating an attack before the deadline expires. With military leadership reportedly reshuffled to figures politically loyal to President Trump, the likelihood of an actual armed conflict is said to be higher than ever.

Whenever geopolitical risks emerge, Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated its value as a safe-haven asset beyond the control of any single nation. An analysis of 20 major geopolitical crises over the past 16 years shows that Bitcoin’s price rose by an average of 31.2% within 50 days following each event, highlighting its strong resilience. Notably, during the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Bitcoin overcame the initial shock and surged about 21%, functioning as an effective store of value amid sharp declines in fiat currencies.

Contrary to retail investors’ fears, large institutional players are paradoxically betting on Bitcoin’s long-term growth. On-chain data indicates that non-commercial traders, including hedge funds and institutions, have built historically large long positions in the Bitcoin futures market, using downturns as accumulation opportunities. This pattern mirrors periods just before the major surge in 2023 and the market correction phase in 2025, raising expectations that another large-scale rally could begin soon.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, also defines Bitcoin not merely as a speculative asset but as an alternative to the global financial system, actively engaging in investor education. The firm emphasizes to high-net-worth clients that Bitcoin is a scarce asset free from national risks and traditional counterparty exposure. As concerns grow over currency depreciation and fiscal sustainability, Bitcoin is solidifying its position as an essential asset in mainstream financial markets, serving as an independent monetary system that governments cannot dismantle.

The digital asset market is expected to experience significant volatility this week depending on potential U.S. military actions and upcoming macroeconomic data releases. Record-long institutional positions and continued inflows of regulated capital through spot Bitcoin ETFs are strengthening downside support in the market. Investors are reassessing their asset allocation strategies, watching for a potential historic upswing cycle following any short-term geopolitical shock.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is assumed for any investment losses resulting from its use. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.