Staking Halved as Supply Floods the Market, Ethereum at Risk of Breaking Below $1,800

▲ Ethereum (ETH) Decline / AI-Generated Image ©

As strong risk-off sentiment spreads across the broader digital asset market, Ethereum (ETH) has surrendered key support levels one after another and is precariously balancing around the $1,800 mark. With selling pressure dominating the market, whether it can defend $1,749 has emerged as the critical battleground that will determine further sharp declines or a rebound.

According to investment media outlet FXLeaders on February 23 (local time), Ethereum is trading near $1,800, down about 5.7% over the past 24 hours. During the same period, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 4.64%, while the total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped 4.31% to $2.23 trillion. The Fear and Greed Index, a gauge of investor sentiment, stands at 14, signaling extreme fear in the market. As a high-beta asset, Ethereum is recording steeper losses than market leaders during this downturn.

The technical structure also clearly points to a downtrend. Ethereum has fallen below its 30-day simple moving average of $2,255 and its 7-day simple moving average of $1,970, declining about 34% since the start of the year. On the daily chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index is hovering between 31 and 34, entering deep oversold territory. The Average Directional Index is approaching 47, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains firmly negative, confirming a strong and sustained downtrend beyond a mere short-term correction.

On the hourly chart, a descending trendline with resistance at $1,950 has formed, and attempts to reclaim the $1,920 level have repeatedly failed. Even a recent minor rebound near $1,845 failed to surpass the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous swing range, reaffirming the strong control of sellers.

On-chain data presents cautious and mixed signals. Net Ethereum staking deposits, which stood at approximately 1.99 million ETH on January 13, have been cut in half to just over 1 million ETH as of February 22. This could increase liquidity supply and add downward pressure on prices. On the other hand, according to the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value ratio, Ethereum appears to be undervalued by about 14.3%, suggesting that a long-term value investment opportunity may be approaching for patient investors.

The most critical immediate threshold is the recent swing low of $1,749. If this level holds, Ethereum could consolidate between $1,750 and $1,970 as it absorbs selling pressure and forms a base. However, if $1,749 collapses on heavy trading volume, the price may slide to the $1,600–$1,700 support zone. In a worsening macroeconomic environment, it could even plunge vertically to the 52-week low of $1,383 or the $1,370 level flagged by prediction models.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any losses arising from investment decisions based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.