Bitcoin Enters Stage 4 of Bear Market Cycle, Analyst Says Door Open to $35,000

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

An analysis has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) has entered the fourth stage of a six-phase bear market cycle. Market experts warn that even if prices rebound in the short term, Bitcoin could decline further in the long run to the $35,000 to $45,000 range, ultimately reaching a final capitulation phase.

According to cryptocurrency-focused media outlet CoinGape on February 23 (local time), well-known crypto analyst Doctor Profit recently classified the current market as being in stage four of a bear market. His assessment is based on Bitcoin’s sharp drop from its $125,000 peak to around $60,000 within weeks. Under his framework, stage one was a period of extreme greed between $115,000 and $125,000. Stage two began when the psychological support level of $100,000 collapsed, triggering massive forced liquidations.

Following stage three, during which Bitcoin’s value was nearly halved within 30 days from $97,000 in January to $60,000 in February, the market has now entered stage four, characterized by a sideways downtrend. Doctor Profit defined stage four as “a phase that exhausts investors through prolonged sideways movement rather than sharp price shocks.” On-chain data supports this analysis, showing an increase in retail investor sell-offs. He projected that Bitcoin could rebound in the short term between $57,000 and $60,000 but may face further declines within the coming months.

The final downside target is projected between $35,000 and $45,000, revised downward from his earlier estimate of $50,000 to $60,000. Considering macroeconomic data and liquidity pressures, Doctor Profit analyzed that during stage five—marked by widespread fear and final capitulation—Bitcoin could fall 50% to 70% from its all-time high. In the final sixth stage, prices are expected to stabilize structurally, accompanied by large-scale accumulation by whales.

Futures market liquidation data also indicates fragile conditions. Analyst Ted noted that if Bitcoin rises 20% from current levels, approximately $9.37 billion in short positions would be liquidated. Conversely, a 20% decline could trigger the forced liquidation of about $2.24 billion in long positions. Analyst Captain Faibik added that bulls are attempting to defend the 200-week moving average at $68,000, and if successful, a rebound toward $80,000 remains possible.

The Bitcoin market is currently passing through a period of heightened volatility, driven by massive capital flows and investors’ psychological thresholds. Despite the entry of institutional finance and advancements in regulatory frameworks, the key question remains whether historical bear market cycle patterns will repeat. Investors are closely monitoring key support levels and liquidation risk zones highlighted by experts, focusing on real-time risk management.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.