Polymarket Sees Heavy Betting on Bitcoin Surpassing $75,000 as Indicators Warn of Downside

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), prediction market/AI-generated image

Optimism is prevailing on Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, that Bitcoin (BTC) will surpass $75,000 within this month. However, on-chain data and technical indicators are sending starkly contrasting warning signals.

According to crypto-focused media outlet BeInCrypto on February 22 (local time), the prediction that Bitcoin’s price will exceed $75,000 in February has attracted a 17% probability on Polymarket, making it the most popular bet. More than $88 million in trading volume has been concentrated on this prediction, yet the actual probability of success has recently plunged by more than 50%, reflecting growing market anxiety. Meanwhile, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $60,000 stands at 12%, highlighting a sharp divide among investors over bullish and bearish outlooks.

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is currently forming a hidden bearish divergence, signaling the risk of continued downside momentum. On the daily chart, Bitcoin recorded lower highs between November and February, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed higher highs, showing a conflicting pattern. This setup suggests that despite temporary rebounds, overall selling pressure remains strong and could present a significant obstacle to reaching the $75,000 target.

On-chain data also indicates insufficient bullish momentum. Selling by long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for more than one year declined by about 67%, from approximately 244,919 BTC on February 5 to 81,019 BTC on February 21, easing downward pressure on the market. However, as long-term holders have yet to return to a full-scale accumulation phase and continue to maintain a net selling position, strong buying support necessary to push prices to new all-time highs remains lacking.

Movements among whales are also mixed. Large whales holding between 100,000 BTC and 1 million BTC increased their holdings by a net 13,460 BTC, bringing their total to around 690,000 BTC. In contrast, mid-sized whales holding between 10,000 BTC and 100,000 BTC sold approximately 10,000 BTC, adopting a more defensive stance. Additionally, a resistance cluster has formed between $72,600 and $73,200, where roughly 149,000 BTC were acquired, raising the likelihood of break-even selling pressure if prices rise into this range.

Bitcoin is currently confined within a narrow trading range between the upper resistance at $72,200 and the lower support at $63,300. To reclaim the $75,000 level, the price would need to rise more than 6% from current levels. However, without sufficient liquidity to break through the strong selling wall, a breakdown below $63,300 could make further correction toward the low $60,000 range unavoidable. Market participants are focusing on risk management and bracing for volatility amid the divergence between optimism in prediction markets and bearish signals in actual data.

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