Bitcoin Faces Claims of 20% Drop on Quantum Risk, Up to 30% of Supply at Risk

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

An unconventional analysis has emerged suggesting that Bitcoin (BTC) should be discounted by as much as 20% in market value as technical fears become reality that quantum computers could neutralize its powerful cryptographic system.

According to cryptocurrency-focused outlet Bitcoinist on February 21 (local time), Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Strategy, stated in a recent report that advances in quantum computing are directly threatening Bitcoin’s security. Edwards emphasized that the arrival of “Q-Day,” when Bitcoin’s cryptography could be broken by quantum computer attacks, may not be far off, and that investors must incorporate a quantum discount factor when determining the asset’s fair value.

The report estimates that approximately 30% of Bitcoin’s total supply is currently exposed to the risk of quantum hacking due to public key exposure. If hacking using quantum technology were to occur, the trust in Bitcoin’s code and its value proposition as a robust asset could collapse almost instantly. Edwards argued that rational investors should price in such a technological catastrophe in advance by applying a 20% discount to its current valuation.

Data presented by Edwards suggests that the quantum computing threat will increasingly erode Bitcoin’s value over time. Assuming it takes about two years to upgrade the network to quantum-resistant cryptography, the probability of Q-Day occurring could reach 60% by 2030 and 80% by 2031. Without adequate security measures, the quantum discount rate could surge to 40% in 2027 and 60% in 2028, potentially dragging market confidence to its lowest levels.

Within the Bitcoin community, technical discussions are resurfacing on how to respond to the quantum threat. In theory, quantum computing can rapidly break existing cryptographic algorithms, making it a critical variable that could shake the very foundation of Bitcoin Core. “Quantum hacking would destroy Bitcoin’s core principles,” Edwards said, warning that without a successful security upgrade, Bitcoin’s fair value would face steep downward pressure year after year.

Bitcoin now stands at a crucial crossroads between technological advancement and potential security collapse, with structural adaptation for the quantum computing era likely to determine the asset’s survival. Market participants are closely monitoring not only price fluctuations but also the timeline for network security upgrades and the pace of quantum technology commercialization as they consider long-term strategies. For digital assets to establish themselves as a standard of future finance, proactively overcoming security threats posed by technological progress will be essential.

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