XRP Spot ETF Sees 95% of Inflows Vanish, Signaling Whale Exit?

▲ XRP (XRP, ETF/ChatGPT-generated image

Inflows into XRP spot ETFs have plunged by 95% in just three weeks, sharply shaking institutional investor confidence. Whether the $1.259 support level holds is expected to become a critical turning point determining the future price direction.

According to a February 21 report by crypto media outlet BeInCrypto, weekly inflows into XRP spot ETFs fell from $36.04 million on February 6 to $1.84 million on February 20. The sharp slowdown in inflows is a symbolic signal that institutional conviction is rapidly weakening. As institutional buying strength diminished, XRP’s price dropped below its weekly volume-weighted average price (VWAP) on February 18 and has continued to correct without regaining that level.

When the price trades below the VWAP—used as a benchmark for institutions’ average purchase price—it suggests that most large-capital investors are currently in a loss position. Considering that XRP previously recorded a 26% plunge after falling below this benchmark, its current technical position appears precarious. With institutional buying sentiment contracting, the $1.259 support level is serving as the last line of defense against further downside.

Technical indicators show increasing bearish pressure, as XRP forms lower highs while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints higher highs, signaling bearish divergence. If the $1.379 support level collapses, the downtrend could strengthen further. Without a breakout above $1.439, any recovery is expected to remain sluggish. The bearish signals reflected in the indicators could negatively affect retail investor sentiment at a time when institutional support is already weakening.

On-chain data from Glassnode shows that XRP outflows from exchanges dropped about 41%, from 71.32 million XRP on February 18 to 41.69 million XRP recently, indicating a significant slowdown in buying pressure. However, despite the price decline, the Money Flow Index—an indicator of real capital inflows—has been trending upward, suggesting that dip-buying demand is still acting as a buffer against a sharp market collapse. Thanks to dip buyers absorbing supply, prices have remained relatively stable after the drop, though weakening buying power could heighten downside risks.

A strong supply zone around $1.26, where approximately 159 million XRP is concentrated, represents a key support area capable of preventing further collapse even if the price falls below the short-term support range between $1.35 and $1.37. If the price slips beneath $1.259, selling pressure could accelerate, increasing the likelihood of sequential declines toward $1.162 and $1.024. For a bullish reversal, a breakout above $1.670 is required. The market is currently locked in a tight tug-of-war between fading institutional support and persistent dip-buying demand.

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