After 40% Plunge, Solana Faces Another Test—Must Reclaim $118 to Signal Trend Reversal

▲ Solana (SOL) ©

“If It Fails to Break Above $118, a Retest of $75”… For Solana, the Lifeline for a Rebound Lies Here

According to investment media outlet FXEmpire on Feb. 18 (local time), Solana (SOL) has plunged about 40% over the past 30 days and has yet to secure clear recovery momentum after falling below the psychological support level of $100. In particular, network transaction volume surged immediately after the price broke below $118, making this level a key inflection point for a potential trend reversal.

On-chain data shows that in the first week of February, when SOL fell below $118, weekly transactions reached 230.5 million, marking the highest level in 12 months. This is interpreted as the result of cascading liquidations across DeFi protocols, which drove a sharp increase in network usage. The weekly transaction ratio relative to market capitalization, which stood at around 4% at the beginning of the year, surged to 14% two weeks ago—the second-highest level in the past three years. This suggests that substantial selling pressure has been reflected in the market.

Technically, $118 has established itself as a strong resistance level. On the four-hour chart, SOL continues to trade within a range between $77 and $90. The Relative Strength Index stands at 48, below the 50 mark, indicating that negative momentum remains dominant, though it is too early to conclude that the previous downtrend has fully resumed.

In the short term, the key lies in whether SOL can break above $90. A clear breakout above this level could open the door for a rally toward $100 and subsequently $118. However, analysts warn that if the price faces renewed resistance at $118—where market participants previously reacted strongly—a retest of $75 could become possible.

On the one-hour chart, two consecutive sell signals emerged after the price reached $90. This increases the likelihood of a retest of the horizontal support level at $78 in the near term. Although a weak bullish divergence signal has been observed at the lows, the reliability of short-term signals is considered limited. Ultimately, analysts argue that whether Solana can rebound hinges on meeting the clear condition of reclaiming $118.

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