Bitcoin Shifts to Defensive Mode as Analysts Warn Post-Options Expiry Poses Greater Risk

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) decline / ChatGPT-generated image

As the large-scale options expiration date for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) approaches, defensive trading behavior driven by macroeconomic uncertainty is expected to amplify short-term volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

According to crypto-focused media outlet BeInCrypto on February 13 (local time), a total of $2.1 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts expired on the day, creating a liquidity inflection point in the market. Bitcoin options accounted for approximately 21,000 BTC, with a notional value of $1.94 billion, while Ethereum options totaled around 117,000 ETH, equivalent to $347.7 million. Market participants appear to be prioritizing risk management over aggressive position building in preparation for potential price fluctuations at expiration.

Bitcoin’s maximum pain price is formed around $67,000, and the put-to-call open interest ratio stands at 0.95, indicating that selling pressure slightly outweighs buying demand. Stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data recently dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, reinforcing concerns that higher rates may persist for longer. Notably, a concentration of downside positions below $65,000 suggests an intense battle to defend price levels around the expiration period.

Ethereum is also undergoing adjustments toward its maximum pain price of $2,000, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.88, reflecting relatively more optimistic sentiment compared to Bitcoin. However, continued outflows from spot Ethereum ETFs and selective risk aversion among institutional investors are acting as obstacles to price recovery. Analysts warn that additional price fluctuations may occur after expiration as market makers adjust hedge positions to maintain delta neutrality.

Experts agree that this options expiration will serve as a critical test that could shape market direction for the first quarter, beyond a simple price adjustment. The key question is whether Bitcoin can firmly defend the $67,000 level, while Ethereum’s short-term trend is likely to depend on its ability to hold support at $1,950. With macroeconomic indicators exerting dominant influence, investors are advised to closely monitor changes in derivatives market data and maintain a cautious approach.

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