Benjamin Cowen: “Bitcoin Won’t Rise Until 2027,” Warns of Prolonged Downturn

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

As Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a typical bear market aligned with its historical four-year cycle, analysts suggest that a prolonged period of stagnation could continue through 2027 amid market apathy and macroeconomic headwinds.

Veteran trader Benjamin Cowen stated in a video uploaded to his YouTube channel on February 11 that Bitcoin has entered a historically recurring downward phase based on its four-year cycle. Citing previous peaks in the fourth quarters of 2013, 2017, and 2021, Cowen emphasized that the fourth quarter of 2025 also marked a historical peak zone. He noted that this downturn differs from previous ones driven by excessive altcoin speculation, attributing it instead largely to investor indifference and a lack of liquidity.

According to historical price pattern analysis, Bitcoin has typically formed a bottom in February during bear markets, followed by a brief rebound in early March. Based on cases from 2014, 2018, and 2022, Cowen suggested that while a local high could emerge in March, it is likely to be temporary rather than signaling a trend reversal. He projected that weakness would resume through April and May, leading to sluggish price action continuing into the summer.

The technical indicator known as the bull market support band is currently positioned between $90,000 and $94,000, representing a significant gap from current price levels. Cowen forecast that it would take considerable time for Bitcoin to decisively break above and hold this resistance zone, adding that a meaningful return to a sustained uptrend may not be possible until 2027. The current $60,000 level is seen as a psychological support line similar to the $6,000 support level in 2018.

The broader macroeconomic environment and unforeseen variables were also identified as factors that could prolong the bear market. Cowen analyzed that delays in the implementation of accommodative monetary policy could maintain macro-level downward pressure through the first half of 2026. He also warned that unexpected negative events—such as the FTX collapse or the pandemic, which occurred in the fourth quarter of previous cycles—could reemerge as a black swan event later this year.

Cowen described the four-year cyclical downturn as a healthy reset that removes excess bubbles from asset markets and refocuses attention on intrinsic value. He advised that rather than relying on short-term price surges or belief in a supercycle, investors should interpret market trends through disciplined data analysis. Market participants are urged to remain cautious about premature optimism and closely monitor long-term shifts in supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic indicators.

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