March Outlook Hinges on Break Above $1.41 Trendline

▲ XRP / ChatGPT-generated image ©

XRP has slipped to $1.35, entering a volatile zone where “ETF optimism” and a “collapse in open interest” are colliding.

According to Trading News on February 27 (local time), XRP-USD fell 3.7% over the past 24 hours to $1.3530, marking the weakest performance among major altcoins that day. While Cardano (ADA) posted a 7% weekly gain, Solana (SOL) 5.5%, Ethereum (ETH) 4.8%, and BNB 4.3%, XRP was the only one in negative territory on a weekly basis at -0.1%.

Intraday movements were even more volatile. XRP surged from a February 25 low of $1.3125 to a February 26 high of $1.4936, only to retreat to the $1.35 range in less than 48 hours. The outlet noted that a descending trendline, which has capped gains throughout this year, has formed near $1.41. After failing to secure a daily close above $1.4923 (the February 25 high), selling pressure quickly intensified.

Derivatives market indicators appear even colder. XRP futures open interest dropped to $2.3 billion on the 27th, the lowest level since January 2025 and down 79% from the all-time high of $10.94 billion recorded in July. A decline in open interest alongside falling prices suggests positions are being liquidated or closed rather than newly built. The media outlet interpreted this week’s sharp rally to $1.49 as more of a short-covering bounce than fresh buying.

Fundamentals present a mixed picture. Ripple continues to expand its ecosystem through a transition to a builder funding model in 2026, fintech builder programs based on the XRP Ledger, and the expansion of overseas payment corridors. Accumulation by large wallets has also been detected. However, with retail demand weakening, ecosystem-related news alone appears insufficient to drive short-term price gains. The key near-term inflection point for XRP, the report noted, hinges on whether expectations for a spot ETF translate into tangible progress.

Technically, $1.3820—the 61.8% retracement level of the previous rebound—is identified as a crucial short-term support. A daily close below this level could open the door to a retest of $1.3430 and $1.3125. Unless XRP breaks above the $1.41 trendline and surpasses $1.4923, any rebound may remain a corrective bounce rather than a full trend reversal.

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