Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Five Consecutive Months of Declines, Is a Rebound Possible?

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Warning signals are emerging that Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of closing lower for the fifth consecutive month, entering its longest correction phase since 2018.

According to investment outlet FXStreet on February 27 (local time), Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $67,300, battling around the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,000. February’s monthly return stands at approximately -14.51%, following January’s -10.17%, marking an unusual pattern of two consecutive monthly declines at the start of the year. If February closes in negative territory, it will mark five straight months of declines since last October, the first such streak since the bearish stretch from August to December 2018.

However, seasonal statistics suggest the possibility of a rebound. Historically, March has posted an average return of 12.21%. This week, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $814.86 million, raising the prospect of ending a five-week streak of outflows that began on January 23. According to data from SoSoValue, continued inflows could serve as short-term upward momentum.

Corporate buying is also continuing. Strategy announced that it purchased an additional 592 BTC this week, following the acquisition of 2,486 BTC the previous week, bringing its total holdings to 717,722 BTC. The company’s average purchase price stands at $76,020, above the current market price. The firm maintains that it retains long-term conviction despite the correction.

Macroeconomic factors remain a burden. The implementation of a new 10% U.S. tariff and the potential for an additional 15% increase, along with lawsuits filed by major corporations, have dampened risk appetite. Bitcoin briefly fell to $62,510 during the week, marking a two-week low. However, comments indicating “substantial progress” in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva helped the price stabilize around $67,000 toward the end of the week.

On-chain and derivatives data suggest that the market has not yet confirmed a bottom. CryptoQuant noted that the slope of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures yield curve has been declining since early 2025 but remains in positive territory. This contrasts with previous bottoming periods in 2018–2019 and 2021–2022, when the futures curve shifted into backwardation. On the weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered oversold territory at 27, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in a bearish crossover. If $65,520 (the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level) breaks down, $60,000 and subsequently $55,777 are presented as the next support levels. Conversely, reclaiming $71,746 could strengthen short-term rebound momentum.

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