JPMorgan Confident in Second-Half Rally for Bitcoin and XRP as Regulatory Shackles Are Lifted

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), XRP, U.S. Dollar (USD) / ChatGPT-generated image

JPMorgan has presented an optimistic outlook, forecasting a strong rally in the virtual asset market in the second half of 2026, citing institutional stabilization following the approval of U.S. cryptocurrency market structure legislation.

In a report released on February 26 (local time), JPMorgan stated that the passage of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill (CLARITY) would serve as a decisive turning point by removing market uncertainty and leading to full-scale participation from institutional investors. Senior strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou projected that as the legal framework is finalized, large pools of capital that had remained on the sidelines due to regulatory risks will begin flowing in during the second half of the year. Regulatory clarity acts as a key driver in enhancing asset credibility and strengthening the market’s fundamental resilience.

Bitcoin (BTC), backed by institutional support, is highly likely to enter a new price discovery phase in the second half of the year. JPMorgan analyzed that following the bill’s passage, major financial institutions will accelerate the launch of crypto-related products, leading to an explosive increase in tangible demand for Bitcoin. In particular, as investors are provided with an environment that ensures asset security, the market is expected to shift from speculative trading to a fundamentally driven upward rally. Improvements in stablecoin regulation were also cited as a positive factor contributing to more stable liquidity provision.

Major altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) and XRP are also expected to benefit from regulatory improvements and achieve parallel growth. With the bill’s approval, XRP has an opportunity to move beyond controversies surrounding its classification as a security and solidify its position as a cross-border payment solution. JPMorgan noted that once legal guidelines become clear, institutions will likely expand their allocation to high-quality assets beyond Bitcoin to diversify their portfolios. This is expected to ease the concentration of dominance in a single asset and promote qualitative growth across the broader ecosystem.

The macroeconomic environment, coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts in the second half, is also projected to work in favor of the virtual asset market. JPMorgan analyzed that if inflation continues to ease and the Federal Reserve shifts its monetary policy stance, lower financing costs will likely drive capital into risk assets. With the two key pieces of the puzzle—legal stability and liquidity supply—falling into place, the market is viewed as being prepared for an unprecedented upward cycle. The integration of digital assets into mainstream financial markets as a core asset class is expected to accelerate throughout the second half of the year.

A full-scale recovery of the virtual asset market is expected to materialize when policy support aligns with concrete institutional action. JPMorgan emphasized that regulatory stabilization will go beyond short-term price fluctuations and serve as a catalyst for improving market transparency and fairness. Investors should closely monitor detailed implementation guidelines of the legislation and the paths of institutional capital inflows to build strategic positions as the second half begins. As structural changes in the market take shape, a new investment approach that moves beyond past practices is required.

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