“Set to Break Through Fear and Rise” — Bitcoin and Ethereum See Growing Bullish Expectations on Prediction Markets

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH)

The virtual asset market remains in a state of extreme fear amid a sharp price decline that has persisted throughout February. However, short-term investors in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are gradually showing signs of optimism about a potential rebound.

According to crypto-focused outlet Decrypt on Feb. 26 (local time), the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which analyzes prevailing market sentiment and psychology, continues to indicate extreme fear. The index—compiled using data such as social media activity, volatility, and market momentum—has remained stuck at this level for nearly a month since prices began plunging in early February. However, as Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have recently started rebounding from their lows, an unusual recovery in investor expectations has been observed, particularly in prediction markets.

Data from the prediction market platform Myriad shows that bets on the probability of Bitcoin surging to $84,000 have increased by more than 20% in recent days. This appears to reflect Bitcoin’s rebound from below $63,000 earlier this week to briefly surpass $68,000 on Wednesday. Although the probability of Bitcoin falling to $55,000 still stands higher at 56%, it is clear that bullish bets have grown noticeably compared to before.

Ethereum is showing a similar trend. After dropping to around $1,815 earlier this week, Ethereum climbed past $2,100 on Wednesday, marking a gain of over 15%. This movement has increased the prediction market probability of Ethereum rising to $3,000. Conversely, the outlook for a decline to $1,500 has fallen to 62.5%. On other platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, the likelihood of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 or Ethereum dropping under $1,500 has decreased by about 10% compared to last week, suggesting that extreme pessimism is beginning to ease.

Expert analyses remain divided between caution and optimism. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s true bear market bottom is likely to form around $55,000, while Standard Chartered warned that a meaningful rebound may only begin after Ethereum slides to $1,400 and Bitcoin to $50,000. Indeed, Polymarket forecasters estimate only a 19% probability that Bitcoin and Ethereum will reach new all-time highs by the end of 2026, indicating that current market expectations are focused more on short-term rebounds.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently trading roughly 47% and 59% below their all-time highs recorded in 2025, respectively. Although overall market sentiment remains subdued, investors are closely watching whether the emerging short-term optimism accompanying the price recovery can break through the massive psychological barrier of “extreme fear” and trigger a trend reversal.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on its content. The information provided should be interpreted for informational purposes only.