What Needs to Happen for Ethereum to Reclaim $3,000

▲ Ethereum (ETH)

Despite positive developments such as massive fund inflows and one of the largest short liquidations on record, Ethereum (ETH), which is now threatening to fall below the $2,000 level, still requires clearer evidence of a definitive trend reversal before it can return to a true bull market and reach the $3,000 milestone, analysts say.

According to investment media outlet FXEmpire on February 26 (local time), Ethereum failed to sustain its previous day’s sharp rally and fell 3.5% over the past 24 hours, once again surrendering the psychological support level of $2,000. After hitting a thick sell wall at $2,150, trading volume surged 30% within 24 hours, accounting for 12% of its total circulating market capitalization.

There are also positive signals. As Ethereum rebounded from $1,800, Ethereum-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded inflows of $157 million, the largest in two weeks. The Fear and Greed Index also rose from 11 to 16, attempting to move out of the extreme fear zone. Notably, the second-largest forced short liquidation in 90 days occurred, raising the possibility that market makers could trigger a short squeeze—buying pressure driven by the closing or covering of short positions—above the $2,000 level.

However, Santiment’s volume moving average data continues to support a cautious outlook. Following a dead cross, where the 7-day moving average fell below the 30-day moving average, trading volume has dried up, leaving insufficient volume-based evidence to conclusively declare $1,800 as a firm bottom. Historically, this crossover indicator has served as a reliable compass for swing trading, accurately signaling gains of 41.2% or declines of 42%.

On the daily chart, Ethereum appears trapped in a narrow range between $1,800 and $2,150, suggesting a prolonged period of sideways movement. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed above its 14-day moving average, signaling an initial buy indication, it remains around 40, implying that sellers still hold control of the market.

Ultimately, if Ethereum decisively moves back above $2,000, it could break through $2,150 in the short term and launch a genuine relief rally targeting $3,000. Conversely, if it permanently loses the $2,000 support level, weak buying pressure could push it back down to $1,800. Should this demand zone—already tested multiple times and potentially depleted of buy orders—collapse, there is a risk of a deeper downturn.

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