Solana Price Outlook: $88 Resistance Amid ETF Inflows, $100 Reclaim in Focus

▲ Solana (SOL) © CoinReaders

Solana (SOL) has sharply rebounded from the $77–$78 support range and is aiming to reclaim $88, but analysts say that with 3,900,000 SOL flowing into exchanges, significant resistance remains before a recovery to $100 can be achieved.

According to Trading News on February 26 (local time), SOL surged approximately 13–14% over the past 24 hours, rebounding to the $78.99–$89 range. The move is largely viewed as a technical rebound following a 24.5% decline over the past month and a roughly 40% correction from its peak. The year-to-date low stands at $67.48, while the yearly high reached $253.61. Market capitalization is estimated at around $49–51 billion, with 24-hour trading volume ranging between $3.6 billion and $5.3 billion, indicating sufficient liquidity but continued high volatility.

The immediate catalyst for the rebound was a Bitcoin (BTC) short squeeze, driven by buying pressure as short positions were liquidated or covered. BTC surged more than 7% from $63,894 to $69,483, reclaiming the $69,800 level, with over $400 million in short positions liquidated within 24 hours. On the same day, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $258 million, while Ethereum rose 12% to near $2,075. SOL, known as a high-beta asset, jumped 14% and tested the $89 level. However, analysts note that if Bitcoin’s rebound falters, it will be difficult for Solana to sustain gains independently.

Technically, SOL remains trapped within a $77–$88 range. The lower band is supported by the February 5 low of $77.60 and the lower Keltner Channel at $76.44, while resistance is found between $88 and $93. The recent swing high stands at $93.43. On the daily chart, the 50-day simple moving average is positioned at $109.97 and the 200-day at $159.40, indicating that the mid-term trend remains bearish. The 50-day exponential moving average also lies above at $101.86. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43.85, recovering from oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory but with a histogram turning positive, suggesting waning downside momentum. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 51.30 signals a strong directional trend.

Capital flows present a mixed picture. U.S.-listed Solana spot ETFs saw net inflows of $30.86 million in a single day, bringing total assets under management to approximately $823.72 million and marking 11 consecutive trading days of inflows. However, over the past three weeks, about 3,900,000 SOL—worth roughly $298 million—has been transferred to exchanges. Exchange inflows are typically interpreted as potential selling supply, offsetting ETF-driven demand. In the derivatives market, open interest rose about 7% over 24 hours to $5.34 billion, while the funding rate shifted from -0.0040% to 0.0078%. During the same period, short liquidations totaled $27.46 million, compared with $4.16 million in long liquidations, indicating that a substantial portion of bearish positions has been cleared.

The outlet presents a base-case scenario of “Hold” for SOL. The $77–$78 range is viewed as a tactical accumulation zone, but a break below $67 could signal a structural reset. On the upside, SOL must break above $88 and $93.43 to potentially extend gains toward $100–$102 and then into the $109.97–$111.89 range. Ultimately, securing a daily close above the $88–$93 resistance band is seen as the key threshold for reclaiming $100.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from decisions based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.