Polkadot Jumps 27% on Halving and ETF Rumors, Will the Rally Continue Through March?

▲ Polkadot (DOT)

Polkadot (DOT), fueled by the extraordinary dual catalysts of its historic first halving and rumors of a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) launch, has surged nearly 27% in a single day, completely leading the cryptocurrency market.

According to crypto-focused media outlet Watcher Guru on February 26 (local time), Polkadot is posting one of the most outstanding gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Based on CoinGecko data, it soared nearly 27% in just one day, while recording explosive increases of 22.5% on the weekly chart and 25% over the past 14 days. However, despite this dramatic surge, it remains down 13.7% compared to last month and approximately 66% below its February 2025 peak.

Polkadot’s relentless rally aligns with a broader market rebound triggered by Bitcoin (BTC), which recently touched $69,000. More importantly, the strongest independent driving force behind the surge is the network’s historic first halving, scheduled for March 14, 2026. This landmark event, which is expected to significantly reduce the asset’s structural inflation, has acted as a key catalyst igniting explosive buying sentiment among investors.

Adding further fuel to the rally, major rumors about institutional capital inflows have swept through the market. Speculation that leading asset managers such as Grayscale and 21Shares have applied to launch spot Polkadot ETFs has rapidly spread, pushing expectations to a peak. ETFs, which provide institutions with a gateway to enter the market without directly holding the underlying asset, are widely regarded as a transformative key capable of reshaping the cryptocurrency industry.

Experts suggest that with a clearly defined and significant event such as the halving on the horizon, Polkadot could maintain a strong rally leading up to that milestone. However, caution remains prevalent, as the cryptocurrency market continues to resemble thin ice, and the recent surge may prove to be a short-term phenomenon driven by increased liquidity and dip-buying activity.

In particular, if Bitcoin fails to break through the major psychological resistance level of $70,000 and retreats under profit-taking pressure, Polkadot could absorb the shock and see its short-term rally abruptly come to an end. As the powerful catalyst of the halving faces off against broader macro market volatility risks, traders worldwide are closely watching whether Polkadot can sustain its strong upward momentum.

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