Bitcoin Returning to a Bull Market? Experts Warn of a Hidden Trap Here

▲ Bull Market

After confirming strong support around the $62,000 level, Bitcoin (BTC) stands at a crossroads as it attempts to reclaim the $70,000 mark, sparking intense debate over whether the market is transitioning back into a bullish phase.

According to a February 26 report by crypto-focused media outlet BeInCrypto, Bitcoin recently rebounded from a low of $62,400 and is attempting to settle around $69,000, testing whether the downtrend has come to an end. A decisive driver behind this rebound was the halt in five consecutive weeks of outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, marked by a net inflow of $257.7 million on February 24 alone. In particular, institutional bottom-fishing led by BlackRock and Fidelity has revived risk appetite across the broader digital asset market.

However, technical indicators suggest a cautious approach remains necessary. According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin’s 90-day moving average realized profit/loss ratio has fallen below 1, historically signaling that a loss-realization period of at least six months could persist. Investor sentiment also remains in extreme fear territory, with negative sentiment reaching 85%, indicating that retail investors are still gripped by concerns over further declines.

Expert outlooks are sharply divided. Mike McGlone, Chief Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, warned that Bitcoin could fall about 60% from its 2025 peak of $126,000, suggesting the market may not have reached a true bottom. In contrast, an expert from 360Strategy maintains a long-term target above $150,000, describing the recent pullback as a healthy correction ahead of a major bull run in 2026, citing strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and ongoing supply constraints.

The critical inflection point for Bitcoin now lies at the $69,375 level, where the 20-day exponential moving average is positioned. If Bitcoin decisively breaks above this resistance and establishes itself above $70,000, it could mark the definitive end of the downtrend and lay the groundwork for a renewed rally toward new all-time highs. Conversely, if strong resistance triggers a sharp decline, the $60,000 support could collapse, opening the risk of a drop toward $52,500 or even the psychological support level of $50,000.

The digital asset market is currently navigating a complex phase where institutional accumulation intersects with retail capitulation. Despite macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting regulatory conditions, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain solid, though short-term volatility continues to warrant caution. Rather than reacting emotionally to price movements, investors should closely monitor changes in on-chain data and the sustainability of institutional capital inflows to seize opportunities in the ongoing redistribution of wealth.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on its content. The information provided should not be construed as investment advice.