Bitcoin Optimism Hits Four-Week High—Will It Break $70,000 Again?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

An analysis suggests that if Bitcoin (BTC) successfully defends the $65,000 level, it could launch an aggressive rally toward the $70,000 mark following the options expiration this Friday.

According to crypto-focused outlet U.Today on February 25 (local time), Amsterdam-based prominent digital asset analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that buying interest at lower levels is emerging on Bitcoin’s hourly chart, indicating a shift in market structure toward an uptrend. Van de Poppe projected that if Bitcoin firmly maintains support at $65,000, it could break above $70,000 after Friday’s options expiration and extend additional gains.

Data from blockchain analytics firm Santiment also points to bullish signals for Bitcoin. Santiment reported that the proportion of bullish sentiment in Bitcoin-related discussions across major social media platforms such as Reddit and Telegram has reached its highest level in four weeks. Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, heightened investor optimism pushed Bitcoin to rebound to around $66,200 at one point, reflecting renewed market enthusiasm.

Changes in Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional financial assets have also been identified as a key factor for future price movements. Over the past six months, while the S&P 500 rose 7% and gold prices surged 51%, Bitcoin fell approximately 45%, marking its weakest correlation with equities since 2022. Santiment analyzed that such an unusual divergence is unlikely to persist indefinitely, and if Bitcoin realigns with the stock market, it could have substantial room for a strong rebound to recover previous losses.

However, the rapid spread of retail investors’ FOMO (fear of missing out) is cited as a short-term risk that could hinder the rally. Santiment warned that as retail investors both take profits and exhibit strong buying-on-the-breakout behavior, market volatility could increase. Historically, price advances have often stalled when the majority of investors became convinced that a bear market had ended and optimism reached extreme levels.

Bitcoin is currently struggling to establish support above $70,000, with the outcome of Friday’s options expiration likely to serve as a key inflection point for its short-term direction. Amid a backdrop of macroeconomic indicators and policy expectations, the strength of the $65,000 support level is expected to be a crucial gauge for determining whether Bitcoin is entering a new bullish cycle. Market participants are remaining cautious of excessive optimism while closely monitoring whether key technical support levels hold.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is taken for any investment losses resulting from its use. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*