Coinbase: “Bitcoin Still at Risk of Falling to $60,000”

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Decline / AI-generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) showed a temporary rebound following President Donald Trump's State of the Union address. However, warnings have emerged that it could decline further to the $60,000 support level due to rising volatility in the options market and weakening on-chain indicators.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet CoinGape on February 25 (local time), Coinbase Institutional stated in a recent report that the current gamma exposure structure in the Bitcoin options market poses a risk of amplifying price volatility. Option dealers are currently in a negative gamma position concentrated between $60,000 and $70,000, which forces them to sell more as prices fall, thereby intensifying downward pressure. Conversely, when prices rise, dealers are compelled to buy, reinforcing the upward trend, but at present the downside pressure is stronger.

Coinbase analysts noted that although Bitcoin has formed a strong volume profile and historical support near $60,000, a breakdown of this range could trigger an uncontrollable acceleration of losses under the negative gamma environment. The team warned that “a collapse of the $60,000 support could induce hedging-related selling by dealers and spark market panic,” suggesting that the current market structure is more vulnerable to downside risks. For a meaningful trend reversal, Bitcoin would need to decisively reclaim the $82,000 resistance level, yet the upper resistance wall remains extremely firm.

On-chain data also supports a defensive market stance. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization has declined for two consecutive months from its November 2025 peak of $1.127 trillion to approximately $1.094 trillion, indicating around $33 billion in capital outflows. The 30-day change in realized market cap remains negative, suggesting that capital continues to leave the market. The decline in the value of realized assets is interpreted as a mid- to long-term bearish signal.

According to Glassnode data, the 90-day moving average of the profit-to-loss ratio has fallen below 1, meaning that more investors are selling at a loss than taking profits. Historically, such loss-driven selling phases tend to persist for several months until liquidity conditions improve. Santiment added that while optimistic sentiment on social media surged to a four-week high following President Trump’s speech, excessive expectations among retail investors could ironically hinder further rallies.

Bitcoin is currently showing mixed signals between policy-driven optimism and cooling data, and whether it can defend the key psychological threshold of $60,000 is likely to become the decisive turning point for the market’s direction. Unless structural weaknesses in the options market and ongoing capital outflows improve, the market is likely to continue consolidating under downward pressure in the near term. Investors are advised to maintain a conservative approach, focusing on the strength of key support levels and shifts in institutional flows rather than becoming overly absorbed in short-term rebounds.

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