Is a June Rate Cut Off the Table? XRP’s $1.00 Level Under Threat—When Will It Rebound?

▲ XRP / ChatGPT-generated image ©

XRP is facing short-term downward pressure amid macroeconomic headwinds stemming from fading expectations of a U.S. rate cut. However, backed by steady buying of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by institutional investors and growing optimism over regulatory easing, the cryptocurrency is preparing a rebound scenario targeting the $2.0 level in the mid to long term.

According to investment media outlet FXEmpire on February 25 (local time), XRP has declined 15.6% in February, showing a bearish trend with $1.0 as its short-term target. The U.S. February Consumer Confidence Index came in at 91, exceeding the forecast of 87.0, heightening inflation concerns. As a result, the probability of a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve fell to 49.6%, weighing on overall investor sentiment in the digital asset market.

Despite these short-term negatives, the U.S. spot XRP ETF market has demonstrated remarkable resilience, strongly supporting a mid-term bullish outlook. On February 24 alone, U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded net inflows of $3.04 million. Since their launch last November, there have been only five days of net outflows, with cumulative net inflows reaching an impressive $1.23 billion. The outlet analyzed that this solid institutional demand, along with expectations for the passage of a cryptocurrency market structure bill in the U.S. Senate, serves as a key driving force targeting a mid-term (4–8 weeks) price of $2.0 and a long-term (8–12 weeks) price of $3.0.

From a technical perspective, XRP is still facing heavy selling pressure as it trades below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA). If the critical support level of $1.0 breaks down, the decline could accelerate sharply. Conversely, if XRP decisively breaks through the $1.50 resistance level and stabilizes above the 50-day EMA at $1.6332, it could fully end its short-term downtrend and signal a complete revival toward $2.0.

However, macroeconomic variables that could threaten XRP’s mid- to long-term bullish scenario remain. The outlet warned that escalating geopolitical tensions, such as a full-scale war between the United States and Iran, or a renewed unwinding of the yen carry trade triggered by hawkish rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), could rapidly drain market liquidity and push XRP’s price below the $1.0 level.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*