Bitcoin Sees No ‘Ramadan Rally’ This Year… How Long Will the First-Quarter Slump Last?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Ramadan Rally/ChatGPT-generated image

The so-called “Bitcoin (BTC) Ramadan rally,” long regarded as a historical statistical pattern in the digital asset market, is at risk of breaking down this year due to sharp price volatility and weak demand.

According to crypto-focused media outlet BeInCrypto on February 23 (local time), the bullish pattern that had repeated annually during Ramadan, the holy month in Islam, has taken an unexpected turn in 2026, starting with a decline that runs counter to investor expectations. In six of the past seven Ramadan periods, Bitcoin followed a consistent structure of surging early and then undergoing a mid-period correction. This year, however, prices plunged at the outset, showing a flush-like drop. Market analyst Mohammad Shahid noted, “The first week of Ramadan this year looks markedly different from the past, with Bitcoin failing to start with a clean rally and instead amplifying volatility.”

On-chain data is presenting mixed signals, further heightening market uncertainty. The Binance Buying Power Index has fallen to levels previously associated with the exhaustion phase when selling pressure peaked, a contrarian signal that could suggest a technical rebound. However, realized losses among short-term holders remain in negative territory, and overall on-chain demand has yet to recover, meaning any potential upside is likely to encounter strong resistance. Shahid assessed the current situation as “possibly a bottoming process, but demand remains too fragile to view it as a full-fledged trend reversal.”

Historical data shows that during Ramadan, Bitcoin’s movement was not merely about price gains but about an early concentration of volatility within a distinct seasonal structure. In 2026, volatility began with a decline rather than an advance, undermining the previously optimistic scenario and suggesting that familiar patterns could become dangerous traps for investors. With Bitcoin’s correlation to U.S. tech stocks increasing and market sentiment remaining in extreme fear territory, the risk of further short-term declines cannot be ruled out.

The digital asset market is currently reacting more sensitively to global liquidity conditions and macroeconomic variables than to seasonal expectations tied to Ramadan. The demand shortfall that persisted throughout the first quarter has continued into the Ramadan period, acting as a powerful constraint on price recovery. Market participants are now at a point where, rather than relying on historical rally records, they must closely monitor tangible capital inflows and improvements in on-chain indicators.

While the narrative of a Bitcoin Ramadan rally has lost momentum in 2026, the structural features of sharp initial volatility and an uncertain recovery trajectory remain intact. Filling the void left by the absent rally are abrupt price swings and heightened investor caution, interpreted as growing pains in a market undergoing restructuring. Global investors are watching closely to see whether Bitcoin can build on its fragile support base and stage a dramatic reversal in the latter half of Ramadan.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any losses resulting from investment decisions based on it. The information provided should be interpreted for informational purposes only.