Bitcoin Halved: Six-Month Slump Ahead or Surprise April Rebound?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), prediction market/AI-generated image ©

As the cryptocurrency market is gripped by extreme fear, investors are closely watching when the relentless decline of Bitcoin (BTC), the market leader, will come to an end. On-chain data and historical statistics are presenting conflicting recovery scenarios, fueling intense debate over the market’s direction.

According to investment media outlet FXStreet on February 24 (local time), Bitcoin has yet to show any clear positive signals as it enters the final week of February. Glassnode’s 90-day moving average realized profit/loss ratio has plunged below 1 for the first time since 2022. This indicates a clear entry into a bear market, where investors are realizing more losses than profits. Historically, when this metric fell below 1, it took at least six months for liquidity to return to the market and for a recovery to occur. If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin may struggle to escape its prolonged slump until late in the third quarter of this year.

On the other hand, more optimistic analyses based on monthly return data suggest a much earlier recovery. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin is at risk of posting five consecutive months of declines through this February, while the longest streak on record stands at six months. Cryptocurrency investor Gayo BTC argued that extreme market fear often appears near major inflection points, noting that investors who bought during previous red downturns achieved the largest gains at the start of recoveries. He suggested that a dramatic rebound could begin as early as April.

There is also a growing call for contrarian investment strategies based purely on the magnitude of the decline. According to the market analysis account “Priced In Bitcoin,” Bitcoin is currently down 47% from its all-time high. Historical data shows that buying after a 50% drop from the peak resulted in a 90% win rate within one year, with a median return of 95%. When the decline reached 70%, the win rate was 100%, delivering at least a 25% return even in the worst-case scenario. Meanwhile, analysts are closely watching the $60,000 level as the key psychological and technical line that will determine Bitcoin’s trend in the coming months.

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