Bitcoin Faces Warning of March Fake Rally, Benjamin Cowen Says “Hell for Retail Investors” Awaits

▲ Retail investor, Bitcoin (BTC) / Gemini-generated image

The possibility has been raised that Bitcoin (BTC) could stage a temporary rebound in early March after weakness in late February. However, technical analysis suggests that the rebound could turn out to be a fake rally preceding a sharper decline.

Benjamin Cowen, a veteran trader and founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, assessed the current market situation in a video uploaded to his YouTube channel on February 23 (local time), citing Bitcoin’s historical cycles and moving averages. Cowen noted that while Bitcoin has often shown weakness throughout February followed by a rebound in the first week of March, past patterns indicate that this period frequently marks a local top, with a high risk of another downturn in April and May.

Cowen highlighted that Bitcoin’s current decline is unfolding in a highly orderly manner. The cryptocurrency has already broken below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages and is now battling around the 200-week moving average, often regarded as the final line of defense. He explained that leaving wicks below or temporarily dipping under the 200-week moving average is a typical and almost inevitable process near the end of bear markets, describing the current movement as an extension of a familiar bearish pattern.

From the perspective of key bottom indicators such as the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio and the balanced price, there still appears to be room for further downside. Cowen stated that he could only be confident the bear market has ended once Bitcoin fully drops below both the realized price and the balanced price—levels that have not yet been reached. In addition, on-chain indicators reflecting supply in profit and loss have not generated a crossover signal, reinforcing his view that investors should observe the market further rather than rushing into dip-buying.

Considering Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, Cowen projected significant inflection points in both the first and second halves of 2026. He presented a specific scenario in which the potential rise in March would be merely a trend-reversal rally, with the true market bottom more likely to form around May or October 2026. Until sufficient macro-level analytical data accumulates, he argued that rigorous risk management should take precedence over reacting emotionally to short-term price fluctuations.

Historically, the Bitcoin market has closely followed recurring bear market paths, and technical indicators continue to recommend a cautious approach. According to Cowen’s analysis, a rebound in March may represent an opportunity to exit or reduce exposure rather than to accumulate positions, and a patient strategy focused on waiting for a confirmed long-term bottom remains valid. Investors should closely monitor whether Bitcoin can hold the 200-week moving average and watch for changes in on-chain indicators while preparing for upcoming volatility.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and the publisher is not responsible for any investment losses resulting from its use. The content should not be construed as investment advice.