After 55% Plunge, Whale Accumulation—Is It a Bottom Signal for Solana (SOL)?

▲ Solana (SOL) ©

Solana (SOL) has plunged 55.07% over the past six months, falling from $253.61 to the $77–$80 range. The current price hovers around $79, as signs of slowing selling pressure and whale accumulation at lower levels emerge simultaneously, placing the market at a crossroads between continued short-term downside and the potential for a medium-term rebound.

The recent decline is intertwined with macroeconomic factors. Heightened trade uncertainty, including a proposed 15% across-the-board U.S. tariff, has strengthened risk-off sentiment. Bitcoin dropped below $65,000, while major altcoins such as Ethereum and XRP also weakened. Gold prices surged above $5,200 per ounce, reflecting a clear preference for safe-haven assets. Analysts suggest this risk-off environment accelerated Solana’s sharp decline.

Technical indicators are sending mixed signals. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to its lowest level since December 2022, approaching oversold territory. At that time, SOL began a strong rebound from around $8. However, the monthly Supertrend indicator has triggered a sell signal for the first time since January 2022, which previously preceded a 95% collapse. While the long-term trend still favors the downside, some analysts note that downside momentum may be nearing exhaustion.

In the short term, the $77–$75 range serves as the first line of defense. Key support lies at $77.30 and $75; a breakdown could open the door to the psychological $70 level and potentially a retest of $67.50. Further declines may target the $60–$62 range. On the upside, reclaiming $82–$83 and breaking the descending trendline could set short-term targets at $87 and $92. In the medium term, recovery of the 50-day moving average at $115.06 will be a critical turning point for trend reversal.

Bearish structure is also evident in the derivatives market. Funding rates have fallen below 0%, and the long-to-short ratio stands at 0.89, indicating a tilt toward short positions. However, long-term holders have accumulated approximately 972,417 SOL in a single day, and aggressive long entries by whales have been observed in the $77–$80 range. Over a 6–12 month horizon, this is interpreted as entry into a high-risk speculative accumulation zone.

In conclusion, the short-term trend remains bearish unless $82 is reclaimed. If $76.45 and $75 break down, $67.50—and potentially the low $60s—come into play. However, given the deep discount from the 52-week high of $253.61, increased long-term accumulation, and an overcrowded short positioning structure, medium- to long-term recovery scenarios toward $115–$161, and more broadly $220, remain possible. A breakdown below $53–$54 would invalidate the medium-term rebound thesis.

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