Amid Tariff Storm, Can Cardano Hold the Last Line of Defense at $0.25?

▲ Cardano (ADA) / AI-generated image ©

Amid a wave of U.S.-driven tariff shocks and broader macroeconomic headwinds battering the cryptocurrency market, Cardano (ADA) has broken below key short-term support, facing a serious downside risk of collapsing under $0.25 and heightening investor anxiety.

According to investment-focused outlet FXStreet on February 23 (local time), Cardano fell 4% during Monday’s session, marking its third consecutive day of losses. Market-wide pressure sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s review of global tariffs and tensions with the U.S. Supreme Court has combined with a bearish bias in the Cardano derivatives market, rapidly eroding retail investor demand.

Data from CoinGlass shows that Cardano futures open interest declined 4.25% over 24 hours to $424.84 million, signaling substantial capital outflows driven by risk-off sentiment. During the same period, $1.86 million in liquidations occurred, most of which were forced liquidations of long positions. As a result, the long-to-short ratio dropped to 0.8619, indicating overwhelming dominance by short positions.

The funding rate also fell to -0.0138%, clearly reflecting traders’ preference for short selling. Typically, a funding rate below -0.010% suggests that selling pressure has reached unsustainable levels, with some analysts noting that this could attract buying interest aimed at capturing funding incentives paid to bullish traders.

From a technical perspective, the outlook is equally grim. Cardano broke below a short-term support trendline connecting the February 11 and 19 lows and continues to trade beneath both the 50-period exponential moving average at $0.2773 and the 200-period exponential moving average at $0.3013, maintaining a clear bearish trend. On the four-hour chart, the downtrend is approaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.2593. If this level decisively fails, the price could slide past the final line of defense at the 38.2% retracement level of $0.2496 and potentially revisit the prior low of $0.2205.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 30, testing the oversold threshold and signaling a surge in selling pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also in free fall below the zero line, widening its negative histogram and reaffirming bearish momentum. However, if Cardano reclaims the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.2695, there remains a possibility of a rebound as it sequentially tests the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages.

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