Where Is the End of the Bitcoin Bear Market? Is $40,000 the Real Bottom Indicated by On-Chain Data?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Plunges ©

As Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, remains trapped in a prolonged bear market, on-chain data analysis suggesting that the $40,000 level could serve as the ultimate bottom of this downturn is drawing significant attention from investors.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet Bitcoinist on February 22 (local time), crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified the $40,000 range as a potential price floor for Bitcoin based on the average acquisition cost of long-term holders.

The average acquisition cost of long-term holders refers to the average price at which investors who have held their coins for more than 155 days accumulated Bitcoin. Often referred to as “diamond hands,” these investors are less likely to sell despite downward price volatility, and their cost basis tends to act as a final line of support during bear markets.

Current on-chain data indicates that the average acquisition cost of long-term holders stands at $40,363, approximately 40% below the current price. The analyst projected that if Bitcoin faces additional downward pressure and reaches this level, large-scale reaccumulation by long-term holders could flow into the market and strongly defend the price.

However, concerns remain despite this optimistic defense scenario. If intense selling pressure in the market overwhelms the scale of reaccumulation by long-term holders, Bitcoin could lose the $40,000 support level and enter a deeper phase of price correction.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $67,980, down approximately 0.2% over the past 24 hours. This short-term movement has been insufficient to recover the more than 2% decline over the past week, and according to CoinGecko data, the cryptocurrency remains down more than 45% from its all-time high.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is taken for any investment losses resulting from it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.