Bloomberg Warns of Bitcoin Plunge to $10,000—What Is It Missing?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) plunge/ChatGPT-generated image ©

Mike McGlone, a macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has presented a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin (BTC) could plummet to $10,000. He argued that the $10,000 level, where Bitcoin was most actively traded before the pandemic, represents its long-term statistical mean, and that price surges beyond that were driven not by structural growth but by excessive monetary expansion and speculative overheating.

According to investment outlet FXEmpire on Feb. 22 (local time), McGlone described Bitcoin as a high-beta extension of the S&P 500 and warned that it would suffer far more severe damage than equities if global liquidity contracts. He also claimed that the flood of altcoins dilutes capital and heightens market fragility, asserting that when speculative sentiment cools and leverage is liquidated, Bitcoin’s price could rapidly revert to its pre-pandemic level of $10,000.

However, the outlet strongly rebutted Bloomberg’s analysis as “completely misguided,” arguing that it fails to reflect the current market structure. Unlike in 2019, when Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, the 2026 Bitcoin market has secured a massive institutional investor base. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) currently hold about 1.46 million BTC—approximately 6.9% of the total 21 million supply—with BlackRock’s IBIT alone controlling $58 billion worth of Bitcoin.

In addition, 194 publicly listed companies firmly hold more than 1.136 million BTC for long-term purposes, making it impossible to dismiss the market as the fragile speculative arena of the past. The outlet also pointed out that the argument claiming that the proliferation of altcoins increases Bitcoin’s supply and depresses its price is inconsistent with reality. Instead, during periods of market stress, investors have tended to sell altcoins and shift substantial capital into Bitcoin, regarded as the true safe haven of the digital asset market.

Therefore, for Bitcoin to collapse to $10,000, it would require not merely an increase in altcoins but an unprecedented chain reaction involving a mass exodus from spot ETFs and large-scale forced liquidations occurring in tandem. At present, however, Bitcoin has fundamentally strengthened on the back of structural demand.

Technical analysis also weakens the case for a سقوط to $10,000. Based on the weekly chart, Bitcoin is currently testing support near the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at around $68,300, a key long-term trend line. Even in a worst-case panic sell-off, the $45,000 to $50,000 range—where the Fibonacci 2.618 level at $45,700 lies—is expected to serve as the strongest final line of defense.

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