Forget AI Stocks: Circle to Dominate Payment Infrastructure in the AI Era

▲ Source: Circle X ©

Amid controversy over the overvaluation of artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks, Circle Internet Group (CRCL), the issuer of stablecoins emerging as “utility stocks” in the digital asset era, has rapidly gained attention as a new investment alternative.

According to investment media outlet The Motley Fool on Feb. 22 (local time), Circle’s stock has experienced a roller-coaster ride since its initial public offering (IPO) last June. Starting at its IPO price of $31, the stock quickly climbed to $69 and then surged past $260 within weeks. It is currently trading around $62, down 76% from its peak.

Despite the sharp decline in its share price, Circle’s underlying business fundamentals have continued to strengthen. The circulation of USD Coin (USDC), issued by Circle, has soared from $35.5 billion in the third quarter of 2024 to $73.6 billion currently. Although still trailing market leader Tether (USDT), which has a supply of $183.6 billion, Circle has established itself as a key player in payment infrastructure by emphasizing transparent reserve management through third-party audits and forming partnerships with more than 100 major companies, including Visa and Deutsche Börse Group.

In particular, stablecoins are ideally suited for micropayments by autonomous AI agents, thanks to blockchain’s ability to operate 24/7 with speed and low cost. The programmable nature of blockchain allows specific conditions under which AI transactions occur to be coded in advance, giving it the potential to form the backbone of future financial payment networks.

Circle’s primary revenue source currently comes from interest income generated by reserves backing its issued coins. As of the third quarter of 2025, interest revenue reached $740 million, up 66% year-over-year, demonstrating strong cash-generation capabilities. With expectations that stablecoin issuance will continue to surge, this revenue base is projected to grow even stronger.

However, in a declining interest rate environment, the interest-based revenue model could become vulnerable, making diversification beyond reserve income essential. In the fourth-quarter earnings report set for release on Feb. 25, growth in subscription and transaction service revenue will be a key focus. Over the long term, how Circle navigates regulatory headwinds and the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market will ultimately determine its true corporate value.

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