With March 1 Deadline Looming, Clarity Act Could Spark a Record-Breaking Bitcoin Rally If Regulatory Shackles Are Lifted

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Expectations are reaching a peak as the likelihood of the CLARITY Act—a sweeping regulatory framework set to determine the fate of the U.S. digital asset market—passing within the year rapidly increases. With an optimistic outlook from the Coinbase CEO combined with behind-the-scenes coordination at the White House, analysts say regulatory clarity capable of attracting massive institutional capital may finally become a reality.

According to crypto-focused outlet CCN on February 21 (local time), Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said in an interview with Fox Business that there is a 90% chance the CLARITY Act, a U.S. crypto market structure bill, will pass by the end of April. He noted that senators are meeting daily to find compromises to move the bill forward, adding that Coinbase is presenting constructive solutions on key issues such as stablecoin reward mechanisms to create a win-win framework between digital asset firms and traditional banks.

Behind this optimism lies active mediation by the U.S. administration. A third closed-door meeting recently took place at the White House, bringing together representatives from the digital asset industry and traditional financial institutions. Participants described the discussions as cooperative, aimed at protecting U.S. consumers and strengthening national competitiveness. In particular, the market views March 1 as a deadline for resolving disputes over stablecoin rewards, leading to expectations that the legislative process will accelerate further.

With positive legislative signals emerging, decentralized prediction market Polymarket has seen heated activity. At one point this week, contracts betting on the CLARITY Act being signed into law and taking effect by 2026 surged to 90%. Although they have since adjusted to around 72%, expectations remain significantly higher than at the start of the year. Investors believe President Trump’s pledge to establish a “crypto capital” will strongly drive the bill’s passage.

However, criticism surrounding the bill is also substantial. Digital asset trader Aaron Day sharply criticized the legislation, arguing that it amounts to a 278-page surveillance framework. He warned that it would grant regulators excessive authority—including real-time transaction monitoring, broad mandatory registration, and submission of source code and tokenomics data—severely undermining anonymity. He cautioned that the industry is being exploited under the guise of regulatory clarity.

Despite the controversy, supporters counter that regulatory uncertainty is the greatest barrier preventing institutional investors from entering the market. They are confident that once the CLARITY Act establishes clear guidelines, trillions of dollars in sidelined institutional capital will flow into the market, triggering an unprecedented surge of liquidity across the digital asset ecosystem.

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