Fate to Be Decided Within 2–3 Days… Bitcoin Stuck at $70,000 Amid Threat of Full-Scale US-Iran War

▲ Decisive Moment Within 2–3 Days... Bitcoin Stuck at $70,000 Amid Fears of Full-Scale U.S.-Iran War / Gemini-generated image

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues its dull range-bound movement between $65,000 and $70,000, a geopolitical time bomb in the Middle East has emerged as a key variable that could shake the virtual asset market. With the U.S. government officially raising the possibility of military strikes against Iran, fears of a full-scale war are tightening liquidity across risk asset markets.

On the 20th local time, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he is considering limited strikes against Iran, putting military options on the table. According to media reports, President Trump is reviewing a so-called “bloody nose” operation—limited attacks targeting military facilities or government institutions—to secure a favorable nuclear deal. Strikes against specific individuals or nuclear facilities in Iran are also reportedly under consideration. Drawing comparisons to the past operation that killed Qassem Soleimani and efforts aimed at ousting Nicolás Maduro, the possibility of precision strikes targeting top leadership has also been raised. President Trump issued a strong warning, giving Iran a deadline of 10 to 15 days and stating that bad things would happen if negotiations collapse.

In response, Iran has engaged in brinkmanship diplomacy. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said during talks in Geneva that he had been asked to prepare a draft agreement and announced that Iran would present a draft to the U.S. within the next two to three days. While emphasizing that a serious negotiation process could lead to an agreement within about a week, he strongly warned that U.S. military action would have catastrophic consequences across the Middle East and the broader international community. Iran also insisted that it has never been asked to agree to zero uranium enrichment, describing the technology as sovereign and impossible to destroy militarily, and urged a diplomatic resolution.

As war tensions rise, market attention is sharply focused on how Bitcoin would react if U.S. bombing were to begin. Economic and crypto experts predict that immediately after an armed conflict breaks out, an extreme risk-off sentiment would take hold—similar to stock markets—likely triggering short-term panic selling. In the early stages of war, both institutional and retail investors are expected to prioritize securing cash such as U.S. dollars, meaning Bitcoin could face strong selling pressure, potentially breaking below the $65,000 support level and experiencing a sharp temporary drop.

However, the longer-term trajectory after the initial shock is absorbed could unfold differently. If a prolonged conflict disrupts global supply chains, drives oil prices sharply higher, and heightens concerns over monetary expansion by governments attempting to counteract the fallout, the situation could reverse. In that case, alongside gold—the traditional hedge against geopolitical crises—Bitcoin’s narrative as an alternative safe-haven asset, or “digital gold,” could regain momentum, creating strong rebound potential.

The cryptocurrency market is currently holding its breath as it awaits President Trump’s decisive countdown. Whether Iran’s promised draft agreement will provide a breakthrough to avert disaster or mark the prelude to unavoidable war will likely determine whether Bitcoin breaks above $70,000 or faces further declines. Market participants should prepare for heightened short-term volatility and closely monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

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