Solana Stuck in Tedious Sideways Trading as Institutions Buy the Dip and Retail Investors Consider Exiting

▲ Solana (SOL) / ChatGPT-generated image

Solana (SOL) has been moving sideways below the $87 resistance level for more than two weeks, continuing its search for direction. While on-chain indicators are showing signs of recovery and institutional capital inflows remain steady, accumulated losses among retail investors appear to be creating selling pressure that is limiting upward momentum.

Currently, Solana is trading around $81. Technically, the price is fluctuating within a narrow range between the $78 support level and the $87 resistance level, a typical sign of consolidation. Market experts say this sluggish movement reflects broader uncertainty across the cryptocurrency market.

One notable indicator is the movement of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), an on-chain metric comparing market value to realized value. According to data from Glassnode, Solana’s SOPR has recently begun to rise gradually from negative territory. Typically, a reading below 1 indicates that investors are selling at a loss, and the recent rebound is interpreted as a sign that the scale of realized losses is gradually decreasing.

However, seasoned analysts remain cautious. Historical data show that during prolonged bear markets, whenever the SOPR climbed above 1, waves of “exit” selling from retail investors seeking to break even emerged, causing prices to retreat again. This pattern has occurred twice over the past three months, prompting observers to argue that it is premature to discuss targets such as $160 or $200.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is also sending mixed signals. Although the CMF is trending upward, suggesting that capital outflows are slowing, it remains below the baseline of zero, making it difficult to view the current situation as a full-fledged inflow phase. Unless capital returns decisively, Solana is likely to remain vulnerable to external shocks.

In contrast, institutional investors are showing a different stance. According to a CoinShares report, institutional inflows into Solana totaled $31 million in the week ending Feb. 13. This was one of the most notable figures among major cryptocurrencies, alongside XRP. The fact that large investors are valuing Solana’s network highly and accumulating at lower levels is providing solid downside support.

Looking ahead, Solana’s next move will likely hinge on whether it can break above $87. If the $78 support level is breached, there is a significant risk of further decline toward the next support at $73. Conversely, if strong buying momentum pushes the price past $87, a rally toward the psychological threshold of $100 and potentially up to $110 could follow, invalidating the bearish outlook.

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