NDYIG Says Bitcoin Drop Not Due to Quantum Fears, What Is the Real Reason?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) decline / AI-generated image

Claims are spreading that Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent decline is due to fears surrounding quantum computers. However, actual data indicates that changes in macroeconomic risk appetite, rather than technological flaws, are the primary cause.

According to crypto media outlet NewsBTC on February 19 (local time), digital asset financial services firm NYDIG stated in a research report that the theory blaming the latest Bitcoin plunge on the threat of quantum computing lacks sufficient evidence. Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG, concluded that concerns over quantum computing are unlikely to have driven the price decline, based on Google Trends data and correlation analysis with related stocks.

Cipolaro noted that the surge in searches related to Bitcoin and quantum computing did not precede the price drop but instead coincided with the bull market when Bitcoin was reaching all-time highs. If the market had preemptively priced in the technological threat of quantum computing, search volume should have spiked before the downturn. In reality, public interest merely increased alongside rising prices. This suggests that fears of quantum computing were not a catalyst for the decline but rather a secondary narrative accompanying price volatility.

The correlation between Bitcoin prices and the stock performance of major quantum computing companies was also cited as key evidence refuting the quantum threat argument. If investors had shifted funds out of Bitcoin due to fears of its collapse from advances in quantum technology, quantum-related stocks should have risen while Bitcoin fell, showing an inverse correlation. Instead, both asset classes declined together, demonstrating a positive correlation. This supports the view that Bitcoin’s downturn reflects a broader pullback in risk appetite and macroeconomic risk reassessment rather than a specific technological concern.

Data from the derivatives market further supports this analysis. The Bitcoin futures basis on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which represents U.S. institutional investor positioning, has remained consistently higher than that of offshore exchange Deribit, indicating that buying demand from U.S. institutions remains solid. In contrast, the sharp drop in Deribit’s basis suggests a significant reduction in leveraged long positions in offshore markets, pointing to supply-demand imbalances rather than technology-driven fear.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,886, testing support levels. NYDIG advised investors to focus on macroeconomic liquidity shifts and tangible institutional flow indicators rather than unfounded fears about quantum computers. As Bitcoin attempts to reclaim its 200-week moving average on the weekly chart, this level is expected to serve as a key inflection point for a potential trend reversal, with the market awaiting a strong rebound momentum capable of overcoming prevailing fears.

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