Retest of $60,000? Is Bitcoin in the Calm Before the Breakout?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding above $67,000, but with extreme bearish positioning in the options market overlapping with record Bollinger Band contraction, analysts say it has entered a “calm before the storm” phase. In the short term, a retest of $60,000 is being discussed, while in the medium term, a rebound scenario toward $80,000–$90,000 is also being raised.

According to investment media outlet FX Leaders on Feb. 20 (local time), Bitcoin rose about 1% on the day near $67,000, though caution remains across the broader market. In the options market, put options are trading at a 13% premium over call options, significantly outside the neutral range of -6% to +6%. Elevated delta skew has persisted for four consecutive weeks, suggesting institutional investors are actively hedging against further downside.

In the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market, another pillar of institutional demand, $910 million in net outflows has occurred since Feb. 11. During the same period, gold prices climbed 15% over two months to approach $5,000 per ounce, while the S&P 500 declined just 2% from its peak. In contrast, Bitcoin remains 47% below its all-time high. Demand for stablecoins in China has also shown a 0.2% discount against the U.S. dollar, indicating a continued net outflow trend within the crypto ecosystem.

Technically, mixed signals are emerging. On the monthly chart, Bollinger Bands have compressed to their narrowest range on record, signaling the potential for a strong directional breakout. Historically, this has often led to upward rallies, though in 2022 it preceded a drop from $20,000 to $16,000. On the three-day chart, a death cross is imminent as the 50-day simple moving average moves below the 200-day average. In the past three similar patterns, corrections of about 50% followed over one to six months. Additionally, 72% of monitored retail investor accounts are maintaining long positions below the descending trendline, raising the possibility of cascading liquidations if prices fall.

The key short-term support zone lies between $58,700 and $60,200. This range overlaps with the Feb. 6 flash crash low and Binance’s average purchase price. If this level breaks, downside pressure could extend toward $50,000–$55,000. Conversely, a clear breakout above $70,000 would open up upper resistance levels and strengthen rebound efforts. Notably, the Sharpe ratio has fallen to -38.38, a level similar to the bottoms seen in 2015, 2019, and 2022, supporting the possibility of a medium-term rebound.

In conclusion, while short-term risks are tilted to the downside, a potential reversal around April could pave the way for a recovery toward $80,000–$90,000 in the mid-year period. The resumption of ETF inflows and stabilization in the macro environment are cited as key variables that will determine the future trend.

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