Bitcoin Headed to $0? “Those Accumulating Now Will Be Smiling in a Year”

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) / ChatGPT-generated image

The virtual asset market has entered an extreme phase of fear, reigniting narratives predicting the demise of Bitcoin (BTC). However, historical bottom signals and long-term return statistics based on past cases point to the current moment as a decisive accumulation opportunity.

According to a report on February 19 (local time), the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index recently plunged to 9, indicating that the market has reached peak fear. The index, which fell as low as 5 last week, is being used as an objective indicator showing that investor sentiment has completely collapsed. Google Trends data also reveals that searches for “Bitcoin going to zero” have reached an all-time high score of 100, underscoring extreme public anxiety.

On-chain analytics firm Santiment analyzed that such widespread pessimism among the public is, paradoxically, a strong precursor to a bullish reversal. According to Santiment, as voices calling for sell-offs and crashes grow louder, the capitulation phase of retail investors—the market’s weak hands—nears completion. Historically, moments when the public predicts the end of the market have marked optimal times for buying at low prices, with wealth redistribution occurring in fear-dominated environments.

However, some caution that buying during extreme fear may not be efficient in the short term. Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, pointed out that the average 90-day return when the Fear & Greed Index falls below 25 has been only 2.4%. He added that the 90-day return during periods of extreme greed reached as high as 95%, suggesting that the index may function merely as a lagging momentum indicator.

In response to these short-term analyses, many experts argue that the time horizon should be extended. BeInCrypto highlighted historical data showing that accumulating Bitcoin during extreme fear has yielded an average return exceeding 300% over the following 12 months. According to this analysis, the Fear Index is not a signal for short-term gains but rather an alert to accumulate assets from a long-term perspective of at least one year. Investors are leveraging the current undervalued conditions with expectations of long-term value appreciation rather than immediate profits.

Macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical crises continue to weigh on the market. Nevertheless, Bitcoin has repeatedly demonstrated resilience by recovering from numerous past crises. The current market environment is testing investors’ patience and strategy, and the choice between panic selling and accumulation is likely to determine the disparity in future returns. Market participants are once again focusing on Bitcoin’s intrinsic value and long-term growth potential at what historical indicators suggest is a market bottom.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for investment reference only, and no responsibility is assumed for any investment losses resulting from its use. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.