Solana Faces $870 Million Token Unlock, 50% Plunge Forecast

▲ Solana (SOL)

Solana (SOL) has entered a precarious phase, facing strong selling pressure ahead of a massive unstaking event exceeding $800 million, raising fears of a potential price halving.

According to cryptocurrency outlet BeInCrypto on February 19 (local time), approximately $870 million worth of assets are set to be unstaked from liquid staking protocols on the Solana network, likely triggering a surge in market supply. The volume of liquid-staked SOL, which stood at 45.66 million SOL in June 2025, has now fallen to 35.48 million SOL. This indicates that 10.18 million SOL—22% of the total—has transitioned into liquid status and could potentially enter the market. The amount directly staked with validators has also declined from 423.43 million SOL to 419.07 million SOL, signaling an accelerating outflow of assets.

Amid concerns of oversupply, Solana’s technical indicators are also heightening anxiety as they form a bearish continuation pattern known as a bear flag. Currently trading around the $85 level and attempting a rebound, Solana is hovering near the lower support line of the flag formation. If the key psychological support at $82 breaks, the downward projection of the bear flag could be completed, potentially driving the price down through $67 and $50 to as low as $41. This scenario represents a drop of nearly 50% from current levels.

On-chain data analysis shows declining conviction among long-term holders, while short-term traders are gaining dominance. Since February 16, the share of supply held by short-term holders has surged from 4.58% to 5.85%. These participants tend to react sensitively to price volatility, increasing the likelihood of panic selling. In contrast, the net position change of long-term holders has fallen by about 65% compared to early February, indicating a significant slowdown in accumulation by large investors. As speculative capital replaces once-stable support forces, overall market resilience is deteriorating rapidly.

While the broader digital asset market remains mixed amid Bitcoin (BTC) strengthening its dominance and XRP facing technical controversies, Solana’s supply-demand imbalance is emerging as a critical structural threat to its ecosystem. If substantial capital exiting liquid staking translates into actual sell-offs, the current fragile support structure may prove insufficient to prevent further declines. Analytics firms such as Santiment have warned that these oversupply signals, combined with heightened Bitcoin volatility, could trigger a cascading downturn across the broader altcoin market.

For Solana to overcome this crisis and stage a strong rebound, it must first break above the $91 resistance level to confirm renewed buying demand. Experts note that a decisive upward breakout above $125 is necessary to invalidate the current bear flag pattern and signal a genuine trend reversal. However, with large-scale liquidity unlocks and the simultaneous exit of long-term investors underway, realizing such a recovery scenario will likely require considerable time and a substantial improvement in supply-demand dynamics.

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