Bitcoin Faces Crash After 9% ‘Fake Rebound,’ Could Plummet to $58,000

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) decline / AI-generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) recently posted a rebound of nearly 9%, giving the impression that its correction phase may have ended. However, warnings are emerging that this recovery could actually be a “fake rally” that heightens the risk of a vertical سقوط to $58,000.

Between February 12 and 15, Bitcoin rose about 9%. However, market instability has intensified as excessive leverage has built up, with open interest on futures exchanges increasing by approximately $1.88 billion and funding rates surging to +0.34%. Analysts note that the rebound occurred within a typical Bear Flag pattern, warning that a full-scale plunge could begin if lower support levels break down.

On the technical side, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown a Hidden Bearish Divergence. While price remains below its previous high, the RSI has risen, making it appear as though buying pressure has temporarily strengthened. This suggests that the broader trend remains bearish and that sellers are quietly regaining control of the market. In addition, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has surged 90% to reach 0.21, signaling further risk. In the past, when NUPL reached this level, Bitcoin experienced a 14% crash in a single day.

Bitcoin is currently testing a key support level at $66,270. If it falls below this price range, the Bear Flag pattern would be confirmed, increasing the likelihood of a vertical drop toward the next downside target of $58,880 (around the $58,000 zone). This area aligns with the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level, a strong structural support zone. However, if selling pressure intensifies, there remains a risk of additional decline toward $55,620.

Conversely, to invalidate the downtrend and stabilize the market, Bitcoin must reclaim at least $70,840. Furthermore, a decisive breakout above $79,290 would signal that buyers have fully regained control. However, with substantial unrealized profits currently accumulated, investors may rush to take profits if prices decline, further exacerbating downward pressure.

Ultimately, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads between continued recovery and a sharp sell-off. Concerns are growing that the recent rebound may serve as a stepping stone for a larger decline. As rising leverage converges with weakening technical indicators, the risk of a correction toward the $58,000 level is resurfacing, calling for heightened caution among investors.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any losses resulting from investment decisions based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*