Bitcoin Signaling a Collapse? Warning It Could Fall from ‘Digital Gold’ to ‘Rare Collectible’

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

As Bitcoin (BTC) stands at a crossroads between a technical peak and a macroeconomic recovery, a warning has emerged that if market pessimism spreads, the cryptocurrency could fall from being a store of value to a niche collectible asset held by only a few.

According to crypto media outlet Benzinga on February 15 (local time), Ari Paul, founder of digital asset investment firm BlockTower, analyzed that the current crypto market is at a critical turning point, with structural peak signals and a macro-driven recovery scenario facing off at roughly 50-50 odds. Explaining the recent price stagnation and weakness in the market, Paul suggested the possibility that this generation of digital assets may have already passed its peak.

The first scenario Paul presented focuses on the fact that despite enjoying favorable factors such as widespread public awareness, political support, and regulatory easing, the crypto market has seen limited real-world adoption. With El Salvador’s attempt to adopt Bitcoin and various corporate experiments failing to demonstrate clear utility, any additional liquidation events could push the market into a deeper downturn. In particular, in an environment where price gains remain stagnant, declining block rewards could pressure the network’s security budget, potentially threatening Bitcoin’s long-term viability, according to Paul.

In contrast, the second scenario views the current downturn as a high time frame correction within a broader macroeconomic uptrend. In an environment of declining trust in fiat monetary systems, Bitcoin and other digital assets remain attractive alternatives for speculative capital. Paul noted that excessive leverage and over-optimism have recently been flushed out of the market, while fundamentals are quietly improving, which could lay the groundwork for another bull cycle alongside a new narrative.

Despite heightened uncertainty, Paul stated that he prefers maintaining a measured allocation to digital assets, considering Bitcoin’s asymmetric upside potential. He is currently maintaining long positions during the rebound phase and plans to reassess market conditions if Bitcoin approaches the $90,000 level. However, he also warned of structural risks, noting that if the market fails to recover and key support levels collapse, Bitcoin could plunge to between $15,000 and $40,000.

As the broader digital asset industry relies heavily on speculative inflows and transaction-based revenue models, prolonged price stagnation is expected to place significant pressure on exchanges and custodial institutions. Paul projected that companies such as Coinbase could face deteriorating profitability, and if many holders exit the market in the process, Bitcoin could be left as a low-value collectible for a limited group. To maintain its position as a global financial asset rather than merely a scarce item, Bitcoin must achieve price stability accompanied by tangible growth.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only and does not assume responsibility for any investment losses incurred based on its content. The information provided should be interpreted for informational purposes only.