With US PCE and GDP Data Ahead This Week, Is a Turning Point Coming for the Crypto Market?

▲ U.S. stock market and Bitcoin/ChatGPT-generated image ©

Bitcoin stalled at the threshold of $70,000, and the cryptocurrency market continued to move sideways last week without a clear direction.

As of 7:33 a.m. KST on February 15, according to CoinMarketCap data, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.4 trillion, up 1.86% from 24 hours earlier. The Fear & Greed Index remained in the “Extreme Fear” zone at 11. Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $69,938.70, up 1.59% over the past 24 hours, but failed to firmly secure the $70,000 level. Ethereum (ETH) rose 1.86% to $2,088.47, while XRP climbed 6.81% to $1.49. Dogecoin (DOGE) surged 16.23% over 24 hours to $0.1126, showing relative strength.

The key feature of the market last week was a “sluggish rebound.” After correcting to the mid-$65,000 range, Bitcoin once again tested $70,000, but strong follow-up buying failed to materialize. Although some altcoins showed short-term momentum, overall risk appetite in the market has yet to fully recover. This trend aligns with the New York stock market’s lack of clear upward momentum, as technology stocks have undergone corrections since early February. The S&P 500 index has fallen about 2% from its January peak, marking two consecutive weeks of declines, while caution toward large-cap growth stocks has spread.

Market participants are closely watching U.S. macroeconomic data scheduled for release this week (Feb. 16–20). The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for December, set to be released on the 20th, is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year. Core PCE is projected to increase 0.3% and 2.9%, respectively. On the same day, preliminary fourth-quarter GDP is estimated to show annualized growth of 2.5% quarter-over-quarter. If the figure comes in below expectations, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut could resurface, potentially providing short-term momentum for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), to be released on the 18th, along with speeches by Federal Reserve officials, are also variables to watch. As some members advocated for rate cuts at the recent meeting, attention is focused on whether any hints about policy direction will emerge. However, considering that the New York Stock Exchange will be closed on the 16th for Presidents Day, trading is likely to remain thin early in the week, with a cautious wait-and-see sentiment prevailing.

Ultimately, the key question for the cryptocurrency market this week is whether Bitcoin can firmly establish itself above $70,000. A breakout above this level accompanied by strong trading volume could open the door to a renewed push toward $75,000. Conversely, if it falls below $68,000, a return to a short-term trading range cannot be ruled out. Until U.S. technology stock trends and key inflation and growth data provide clearer direction, the market is expected to remain in a “pause” phase, neither decisively rising nor falling.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is taken for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.